A Roadmap to Our Coronavirus Summer and Fall

As lockdowns end, we still don’t know what to expect.

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Today’s Agenda

• Here’s what’s next with the coronavirus.
• Trump just can’t quit Twitter.
• Stocks will never fall again, probably.
• Consumer confidence is slowly reviving.

So … What Now?

For better or worse, Americans are emerging from their pandemic shelters before the pandemic is over or we’re even sure we’re ready. We’re travelers disembarking after a long voyage to a strange new country, Coronavirus Land, with only the barest instructions about what to do next: Wear a mask. Wash your hands. Don’t stand so close to me.

Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb has been one of the more helpful guides on this journey, and he talked to Michael R. Strain about how he sees the next several months going. Hot summer weather may offer a bit of a respite in the short term. After that, we’ll need better virus testing and tracing capabilities, which Gottlieb sees many states having or building by the fall. Schools and businesses will need to enforce social distancing in order to stay open safely, and we’ll all have to do our individual parts — even when some of our leaders are actively discouraging us. Good luck! Read the whole conversation.

One country whose behavior we might want to study is — wait for it — Uruguay. You thought I was going to say New Zealand, didn’t you? (That is actually another role model, and I would definitely not say no to living there and studying its ways for several years.) Unlike New Zealand, Uruguay is surrounded not by beautiful, distancing ocean, but by very sick neighbors in Argentina and Brazil, notes Mac Margolis. He explains how the country has managed to keep its case and death count low without shutting down its economy. One hint: Uruguayans don’t feel like wearing a mask is an affront to their liberty.

One thing you probably won’t do any time soon is jump on a jet plane and fly to some remote location — such as, say, New Zealand — which would probably just put you in quarantine for a fortnight anyway. This is yet more terrible news for airlines, which Brooke Sutherland notes are still laying people off even as they talk up recovery. It is better news for Airbnb, which Andrea Felsted writes will be facilitating the staycations-but-a-couple-of-towns-over we’ll take instead. It will help us save up for New Zealand.

Trump vs. Twitter

President Donald Trump is our first, and hopefully last, Twitter president. It’s one source of his political power and the channel for the expression of his id. In return, this keeps Twitter in the national conversation, even though relatively few people actually use it. But the trade-off is having to ignore Trump’s frequent violations of Twitter’s terms of service. This Faustian bargain is being rewritten, though, with Twitter suddenly putting warning labels on the president’s tweets.

This makes the president very angry, and yesterday he threatened to strip Twitter of legal protections social-media platforms have long enjoyed. Spats between old friends are often more bitter than most. But Trump won’t ever shut this old friend down, writes Tim O’Brien. He just needs it too much. Even today he took to Twitter to try to explain away a violence-inciting tweet Twitter had flagged this morning.

What’s ironic is that there are real issues with the “Section 230” protections social-media companies get, and they’re due for revisiting, writes Cass Sunstein. But Trump’s calls to “REVOKE 230!” are a bad-faith effort merely to threaten a company that made him feel bad. It’s yet another example of how he thinks the rule of law doesn’t apply to him, writes Jonathan Bernstein, unless it can be used to bludgeon his enemies.

Market Momentum Is Pandemic-Proof

Trump had a chance to vent about Twitter in a Rose Garden address today, but went after China instead. He accused it of not warning anybody about the coronavirus — eliding his own record of ignoring such warnings from the World Health Organization, with which he also cut U.S. ties — and threatening repercussions over Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong. It’s kind of scary when the global economy’s parents fight in a pandemic! But the stock market chose to be grateful no dishes were thrown and carried on rallying. It’s easy to mock the market’s obliviousness to death, economic destruction and American cities on fire, but John Authers writes it seems to have real momentum that could keep it climbing, as long as nothing interferes with its optimism about the coronavirus.

In any event, the market has some insurance in its biggest component, Microsoft Corp., which Matthew Winkler writes is built to thrive in a pandemic, as are other pricey tech giants. Don’t fight the Fed, or Clippy.

Telltale Charts

Consumer confidence, pounded into the dirt by the coronavirus, is starting to peel itself up, writes Ben Schott, starting with the rich people.

Further Reading

America’s dams are falling apart. Without urgently needed repairs, there will be many more tragedies like Michigan’s. — Bloomberg’s editorial board

Facebook Inc.’s plan to hire remote workers looks like an effort to cut labor costs it helped get out of control. — Conor Sen

Coronavirus hasn’t changed any of the bad things about the oil market. — Liam Denning

China’s Hong Kong grab raises fresh headaches for Boris Johnson. — Therese Raphael

Banning Chinese STEM students will only hurt the U.S. They’re not stealing back to China with our precious knowledge. — Virginia Postrel

The U.S. should help end the long tragedy of Libya’s decade of instability. — James Stavridis

ICYMI

A Minneapolis cop was charged with the murder of George Floyd.

Every worker at one Tennessee farm has Covid-19 just before harvest.

Tuna melt is the comeback sandwich of the year.

Kickers

Ancient Israelites burned cannabis in religious rituals. (h/t Scott Kominers)

Roman Iron Age board game pulled from burial mound.

Mysterious old cubes pulled from river.

Skinny genes tell fat to burn.

Note: Please send skinny genes and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Stacey Shick at sshick@bloomberg.net