India’s covid toll crosses China’s as cases rise steadily

The death rate in India has remained at 3.3%, while the global fatality rate hovers around 6%

The number of people succumbing to covid-19 in India neared 5,000 on Friday, crossing China’s toll of 4,638. The country now is the ninth worst hit by the coronavirus, following a sharp rise in infections to more than 170,000, according to the Johns Hopkins University’s real-time dashboard of the disease.

There has been a sharp rise in covid-19 cases and deaths in past few weeks in India, especially in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Gujarat. Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat recorded a total of 115,423 cases and 3,610 deaths as of Friday. Delhi recorded 1,106 cases in the last 24 hours, taking the total in the national capital to 17,386 cases, and the figure is expected to rise further.

The country has recorded a rapid increase in cases since curbs were eased in the fourth phase of the lockdown across states. “We were growing at the rate of 3,000 positives a day just three weeks ago. This week we are seeing the number go up to 7,000 a day. This is just as the epidemiological forecasts had predicted," said Amir Ullah Khan, fellow at the Rajiv Gandhi Institute for Contemporary Studies, a think tank.

“Rather than allow the infection to spread under the garb of rejuvenating the economy, we should have taken care of the old, the infirm and the poor and continued a strict lockdown," Khan said.

India had the largest number of deaths during the influenza pandemic of 1918. The influenza pandemic was deadlier than covid-19. India remains highly vulnerable to infectious diseases, considering the rapid urbanization.“In 2020 we are more in number and are better interconnected, while the cities are denser and urban slums are overflowing. Social distancing is a challenge. The vulnerable population has increased," said Lalit Kant, a scientist and former head of epidemiology and communicable diseases at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).

“The consequence of all this is what we are seeing—a steady increase in the number of deaths. In China, 80% of cases and close to 70% of deaths came from only Hubei province. Our numbers are from the entire country. The trajectory is disturbing," he said.

The death rate in the country has remained at 3.3%, while the global fatality rate hovers around 6%. However, some states such as Maharashtra and West Bengal have higher death rates than the national average.

The fatality rate also varies within states such as in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, where some districts have recorded fatality rates as high as 18% and 11%, respectively.

“The cases will rise as the lockdown had to be eased, considering the socioeconomic conditions of the country. However, to stem the increase in the number of covid-positive cases, community participation is paramount in adapting to physical distancing. For preventing deaths, we need to improve the quality of care and the range of doctors in covid-dedicated hospitals as co-morbidity conditions such as heart and kidney diseases are playing an important role in the death count," said Dr Jugal Kishore, a member of the government’s rapid response team on covid-19 and head, department of community medicine, Safdarjung Hospital.

Public health experts have said that the government is going all out to flatten the coronavirus curve.

However, millions of vulnerable workers are eager to go back to their villages, a move that is set to increase the risk of the virus spreading.

“The coming few weeks are very critical for India," said Dr Suresh Sharma of the Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi University.

“Initially it was said that the rise in covid-19 cases and spread of the disease was because of international migrants who were stranded in various other countries. However, now the spread will be because of internal migrants that we’ve been witnessing over the past few weeks."

The health ministry on Friday said that, so far, a total of 71,105 people have been cured, including 3,414 in the last 24 hours. This takes the country’s total recovery rate to 42.89%.

“The covid-19 case curve is linear but not flat, but the cases are rising exponentially in states such as Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, and to some extent in Gujarat. Similarly, cities such as Mumbai and Ahmedabad are contributing significantly to the case load," said Mahendra K. Verma, a professor in the department of physics, IIT Kanpur, who has been mathematically modelling the pandemic.

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