‘The political dilemma’: Queensland’s border war ignites early election talk

Queensland's border is closed on health advice to cold southerners looking to escape the winter, but as a state election looms politicians and experts wonder how much votes will start weighing into Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk's decisions.

Federal medical officers say there is no reason for state borders to remain closed. Queensland's own Chief Health Officer thinks otherwise.

The discrepancy in health advice has divided the nation and weaponised the issue for political warfare.

Palaszczuk is in a difficult position: with a state election in five months, her 10-seat majority is exposed to a Queensland constituency that has endured high rates of unemployment for years before the virus hit.

Battening down the hatches will plunge more into unemployment, opening them up too early could kill hundreds.

Even Ms Palaszczuk's staunchest opponents are split over whether the Premier's border war is motivated purely off the advice given by the nation's longest-serving Chief Health Officer, Queensland's Dr Jeannette Young, or whether it's motivated by the looming election.

Palaszczuk is reviewing the border closure on Sunday. It is a decision that may save lives. It may save businesses. Politicians and experts wonder whether it will save her career.

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton last week urged Queenslanders to take the border closure to the High Court. On Tuesday, Tourism Minister Simon Birmingham tightened the federal government's rhetoric, saying the border closure was "crippling" small businesses and that Palaszczuk was "pretending somehow there hasn't been success suppressing COVID-19 elsewhere in Australia".

The Premier was steadfast. "These are really hard decisions everyone," she said. "I have sleepless nights. I understand people are hurting. I understand people have lost their jobs."

"I want to get people back into work as quickly as possible."

Former prime minister Kevin Rudd goes further, accusing the federal government of playing a political game.

"Dutton and Birmingham on instruction, I presume from Scott Morrison, are playing a deliberate political game in order to delegitimise the Queensland government's handling of the COVID-19 crisis," says the Queenslander, a previous chief-of-staff to former state premier Wayne Goss.

"Their agenda is patently political whereas Premier Palaszczuk's response has been driven by the public health advice."

Former Labor minister and speaker John Mickel says it would be too politically risky for the Premier to open the borders without the support of state Chief Health Officer Young.

"If the government opened the border against medical advice and we had an outbreak as a direct result of that, then it's the [state] government who will wear that," Mickel says.

"If she caves in to pressure and there is an outbreak, she will be hounded.

"Therein lies the political dilemma."

Mickel, who is now a professor at the Queensland University of Technology, says "of course" the barrage of attacks from federal ministers Simon Birmingham and Peter Dutton had been ordered from higher up.

"They have half-an-eye to the election coming up," says the professor.

"The task for her [Palaszczuk's] opponents is much much easier, they can pressure, they can prod but at the end of the day they won't have to accept responsibility."

Federal Coalition MPs vehemently reject the suggestion an election five months away is clouding their judgment. Some, such as former state opposition leader Lawrence Springborg and Gold coast mayor Tom Tate, have even backed the Premier.

"I fully support the sovereign rights of states to impose restrictions for health reasons," says federal Queensland Liberal National senator Matt Canavan. "I do think there is a strong case for restriction on regional travel which eventually came in.

"What I'm frustrated by is the lack of a clear plan. I'm not saying let's open tomorrow, but there's a lot of confusion now on how this will happen and when it will happen."

Paul Scarr, Canavan's federal senate colleague, who urged clarity, and for borders to open within a month, hesitated to accuse Palaszczuk of playing for votes.

"I can try to understand the pressure the Premier has been under," says Scarr.

Asked whether Palaszczuk is shoring up her position ahead of the October election, he says: "I'm not going to make that accusation. I'd cut her some slack in that respect. I'm not going to ascribe any ulterior motive in good faith."

Federal LNP senator Gerard Rennick says the Morrison government should withdraw JobKeeper funding if Palaszczuk keeps the border closed.

"If the states want to stay in lockdown forever then I think the federal government should turn around and say 'we want to reopen the borders and if the borders aren't reopened then states can start to pay JobKeeper," says Rennick.

Compared to a Coalition split on whether Palaszczuk is politicking or being strictly guided by Young's health advice, One Nation has fewer doubts - it is challenging the constitutionality of the border closure at the High Court.

Party leader Pauline Hanson joins Clive Palmer, who on Thursday expanded his constitutional claim against Western Australia to include Queensland.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the state and territory leaders had a "very candid" discussion about borders in Friday's National Cabinet meeting.

"It's preferable to be able to be in a situation where you don't have borders as soon as possible because obviously that means that the tourism industries in particular, and particularly with school holidays coming up, might be able to benefit from that travel," he said.

It could be months before the High Court determines the border closure's constitutionality.

Whether or not Queensland is still closed off to the rest of Australia by then depends on health advice and federal government pressure.

And potentially, increasingly, votes.