Q4 GDP Highlights: Growth slows to 3.1%, hurt by lockdown, beats estimates; govt adds caveat

Q4 FY 2019-20 GDP growth estimates Highlights: India's economy grew at 3.1 per cent in Q4 of the last fiscal, beating street estimates.

Q4 FY 2019-20 GDP growth estimates Highlights: India’s economy slowed down to 3.1 per cent in Q4 on the back of the coronavirus pandemic superimposed on a prolonged slowdown. Though the GDP growth estimates have surpassed most estimates made by various economists and rating agencies, the government has left a caveat that the figures can be revised as the current data is insufficient. With the release of Q4 GDP growth, the full year 2019-20 GDP growth stood at 4.2 per cent. The government has also revised down the GDP growth in Q1, Q2, and Q3 to 5.2 per cent, 4.4 per cent, and 4.1 per cent respectively. As India travels through the path of economic uncertainty, the GDP growth in the fourth quarter becomes important as it includes the figures for one week of lockdown. It is also expected that today’s figures will help to determine the impact of the pandemic more clearly. Meanwhile, the growth rate of eight core industries for April 2020 fell by 38.1 per cent, compared to a fall of 9 per cent in March 2020. The output of electricity fell by 22.8 per cent, while the output of cement fell by 86 per cent; steel by 84 per cent; fertiliser by 4.5; refinery by 24.2 per cent; crude oil by 6.4 per cent; and coal by 15.5 per cent in April 2020. Even before the coronavirus cases started to surge in India, the country’s economy was struggling through a prolonged economic slowdown.