'They wanted to like her': Sen. Martha McSally in worse shape in Arizona than Trump

The growing political threat to Sen. Martha McSally was magnified by a focus group of women voters who expressed visceral opposition to supporting the Arizona Republican in November, even as some were open to backing President Trump.

Details of the mid-May session, conducted virtually with a half-dozen college-educated Arizona women under the age of 65, were shared this week with the Washington Examiner. All voted for Trump in 2016 but were split down the middle on his reelection, with three undecided and three flatly opposed. But when the discussion turned to McSally, the women were unanimous: None intend to back the senator this fall in her race against Democratic challenger Mark Kelly.

“What they’re so disappointed in with Martha McSally is that they wanted to like her,” said Sarah Longwell, a Republican operative who conducted the focus group via video conference from Washington. Longwell, who opposes the president and is active in Never Trump circles, helped launch the new group, Republican Voters Against Trump, an effort to boost presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

The McSally campaign declined to comment. But Republican insiders monitoring the race said the senator is fighting headwinds whipped up by voter frustration with Trump, particularly in the heavily populated suburbs of Maricopa County adjacent to Phoenix. The president is in a close-quarters battle with Biden for Arizona’s 11 Electoral College votes. Nevertheless, Republican operatives working the race have confidence McSally will hold on.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is spotlighting Kelly’s business dealings in China. Public polling shows voters across the political spectrum are angry with Beijing, believing the communist government’s decision to hide information about the coronavirus outbreak cost American lives and economic prosperity. Republicans are convinced Kelly’s numbers will tumble by the time the GOP ad machine is finished educating voters about his ties to China.

Republicans also predict voters will recoil at the amount of money Kelly, a former astronaut, has earned via lucrative paid speeches.

Longwell has been holding focus groups with Trump voters for the past couple of years to gather data on motivations for supporting the president and develop political messaging that might drive a wedge between him and Republicans who voted for him in 2016 but are hesitant to do so again. In the Arizona focus group, conducted primarily to gather feedback on Trump, Longwell was struck by the sharp criticism of McSally.

The women revealed deep frustration with Trump, an assessment reaffirmed by his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. But Longwell explained that “their anger level was much higher at McSally.” Longwell said there were few, if any, complaints about McSally’s voting record in the Senate or positions on key issues. Instead, the group’s disenchantment with the senator was almost exclusively image related.

Longwell said the women were impressed with McSally’s resume and military background, offering that they would take satisfaction in supporting a “strong woman” in the Senate race. But Longwell said they saw the senator as a transparently divisive caricature of Trump who was placing loyalty to the president to curry favor with his supporters above the best interests of Arizona. At least the president’s unsavory behavior is authentic, the women said.

Longwell said she has seen this double standard before in other focus groups. “Voters hold other politicians to a different standard than they hold Trump,” she said.

McSally entered Congress in 2015, winning a swing district in southern Arizona the previous November after a hard-fought campaign. In 2018, she ran for an open Senate seat, losing narrowly to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. A few months later, Republican Gov. Doug Ducey appointed McSally to the Senate to fill a vacancy. Democrats quickly recruited Kelly, the husband of beloved former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, to run against McSally.

Propelled by Arizona’s status as an emerging presidential swing state and opposition to Trump by suburban voters, Kelly quickly opened up a lead concerning Republicans insiders. In the RealClearPolitics average, Kelly leads McSally 49% to 40%. Less than six months before Election Day, Republicans worry the Democrats are poised to flip a seat that has been in GOP hands since 1969 and was long-held by John McCain, who died in office in 2018.

“It is looking exceedingly bad for McSally,” a GOP operative in Arizona conceded.