Trump's 2020 challenge: Biden is his first opponent voters actually like

The pandemic isn’t the only unprecedented challenge President Trump is facing as he seeks reelection. In presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, Trump, for the first time, has an opponent people like.

Trump won in 2016 despite a 60% unfavorable rating on Election Day because Hillary Clinton was herself deeply unpopular. His main opponent in the Republican primaries was Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who has also struggled with likability. The bear-hugging former vice president of the United States Democrats are poised to run against Trump does not possess these same liabilities, despite high-profile examples of testiness with voters.

“This is a challenge for the Trump campaign. Unlike in 2016, this is not currently a race between two candidates with negative favorability,” said Republican strategist Christian Ferry. “Trump’s favorability in 2016, and today in 2020, is upside-down. In nearly all polling leading up to the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton had overwhelmingly negative favorability ratings. But today, Biden’s favorability numbers are nearly all net positive. And the Trump campaign has not yet found an effective push against Biden’s favorability that truly distinguishes the president from Biden in a race that is a binary choice.”

The Trump campaign has had some success denting Biden’s persona as Barack Obama’s grandfatherly image and a character straight out of The West Wing. They have hammered the former vice president as a corrupt district insider beholden to Beijing. The Tara Reade sexual assault allegations have also had an impact. The RealClearPolitics polling average actually shows Biden with a minus 2.5% favorable rating over the last month, with a new Economist/YouGov poll showing a 51% unfavorable rating.

But even these diminished numbers are better than Trump’s. The president is viewed favorably by 42.6% and unfavorably by 54.3% in the RealClearPolitics polling average over the same period of time. Four out of five polls taken on this question over the past month have Trump underwater by double digits. Economist/YouGov gives Trump a 54% unfavorable rating.

Republican insiders worry the Trump campaign hasn’t moved decisively enough to define Biden for the electorate ahead of the fall race. But it is difficult for any such messaging to break through during the coronavirus, and the temperamental Trump has been known to step on his own campaign’s plans with Twitter distractions and confrontations with the press.

“You can talk all you want about issues, but when push comes to shove, people, especially swing voters, vote for people, not policies,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “Ronald Reagan was the perfect example. Americans disagreed with Reagan on many issues but supported him because he had a winning personality.”

Trump’s insistence on tweeting about a conspiracy theory involving MSNBC host Joe Scarborough and an intern who died in his congressional office nearly two decades ago, even after the widower left behind asked him to stop, as the coronavirus death toll passes 100,000, risks reinforcing the perception he is mean. Trump’s own supporters are split between people who like his confrontational style and those who favor his policies but wish he would put down his phone and quit tweeting.

Biden’s likability edge dates back to the Democratic primaries, though liberals complained some of it was due to sexism against the women he was running against, especially Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris. Like Bill Clinton, he is especially strong with empathy, a major plus during the coronavirus. This springs from his own extensive history with personal loss, most recently with the death of his son Beau from brain cancer.

“Joe Biden's empathy is the biggest advantage he has over Donald Trump,” said Bannon. “Biden knows how to comfort people, which is a big asset during the pandemic which has killed more than 100,000 Americans. Biden soothes wounds, while Trump opens them. Trump can divide and conquer, which served him well in 2016. But Biden can heal divisions and provide solace to a grieving nation.”

Biden does have one potential likability problem for the Trump campaign to exploit: his tendency to get nasty with voters who challenge him. This has manifested itself most recently with his “you ain’t black” comment to an African American interviewer who pressed him on what he had done for the black community. The Trump rapid response team on Thursday circulated a message titled “Joe Biden: bigoted liar.”

Earlier this year, Biden got in a Michigan construction worker’s face during an argument over gun control. “You’re full of shit!” Biden yelled, saying he would “slap him.” Biden called another voter who asked him a mildly negative question a “lying dog-faced pony soldier.” In an exchange over son Hunter Biden’s business dealings in Ukraine, he shouted at an Iowa voter, “You’re a damn liar!” and made a comment about the man’s weight.

Nor is this a recent problem for the 77-year-old Democrat. His lies about his academic credentials during a confrontation with a New Hampshire voter — “I think I probably have a much higher IQ than you do, I suspect,” Biden told the man — derailed his 1988 presidential campaign.

Still, Biden’s reputation is not as ingrained on this front as past Trump foes. Clinton’s likability issues were even a punchline in the 2008 Democratic primaries. “You’re likable enough, Hillary,” Obama jokingly assured her in a debate.