UFC On ESPN 9: Tyron Woodley Vs. Gilbert Burns Odds And Predictions
by Brian Mazique
Former welterweight champion Tyron Woodley is back, and so is the UFC.
Woodley, who is still the No. 1-ranked contender in the UFC’s welterweight division, will face the red-hot Gilbert Burns in Saturday night’s main event at the UFC Apex. This will be the promotion’s first return to Las Vegas since the COVID-19 pandemic rocked the globe.
No fans will be in attendance, but they can watch on television or on their mobile devices and PCs.
Here is a look at the odds for the fight.
Odds
- Woodley -177
- Burns +152
Per BetOnline
Why Tyron Woodley is the Favorite?
Despite a rather humbling loss in his last fight against Kamaru Usman that cost Woodley his title, and more than a year out of the Octagon, The Chosen One is still a fairly sizable favorite to win on Saturday.
The likely factors are experience, power and his underrated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills. While Woodley and Burns have similar professional records at 19-4 and 18-3, respectively, the former has far more experience in main-event bouts.
Woodley won the UFC Welterweight title in July 2016, and he has main-evented or co-main-evented his last six appearances. Saturday will be Burns’ first-ever main event fight in the UFC.
Woodley will also have a power advantage.
Burns was once a 155-pounder who is competing now at welterweight. Woodley’s walkaround weight is close to the 200-pound mark and he cuts to get down to 170. He’ll be the bigger, stronger man in the Octagon. Few, if any in the welterweight division hit as hard as Woodley.
Burns’ Jiu Jitsu is world class, and he can handle anyone in the world in that area. However, let’s not sleep on Woodley’s grappling. He was presented with his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt in the Octagon after he submitted Darren Till with a D’Arce Choke in 2018.
Burns may be a little better on the ground, but he won’t make a fool of Woodley when it comes to grappling.
Gilbert Burns’ Chances for an Upset
As motivated and fit as Woodley looks, the reality is, the former champion is now 38 years old. At some point, you have to wonder if he’s going to look and feel his age in the Octagon.
Some might argue the lackluster performance against Usman might have been a preview of a decline. If that is the case, Burns will be in a position to reap the benefits of Woodley’s falloff.
Burns is athletic in his own right, and there will be a smaller Octagon for Saturday’s event. Woodley hasn’t performed well against opponents who come forward and back him up against the cage to nullify his offense. If Burns can duplicate the gameplans executed by Rory MacDonald and Usman, he’ll have a chance to pull off an upset.
Prediction
With all due respect to Burns, I like Woodley in this matchup.
He seems angry and motivated to make a statement. Stylistically, Burns isn’t the toughest draw for Woodley. The takedowns will be tough, and I don’t believe Burns can win a striking battle with the still uber-athletic Woodley.
Expect Woodley to win this one decisively, and that means with a KO in the first round.
On Friday after the weigh-ins, I’ll take a look at the updated odds and offer predictions for all 11 fights. I’ll also take a look at the event from a DraftKings perspective.
After the event, I’ll cover the top individual performances, the main event, as well as a complete recap of UFC on ESPN 9.