Jalen Smith Could Be The Most Under-Appreciated Big In The 2020 NBA Draft

Two years ago, Bruno Fernando averaged 13.6 points, 10.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game as a sophomore at Maryland. He was the focal point inside for the Terrapins, and teams had to do whatever they could to stop him. However, game-planning specifically for Fernando often meant neglecting Jalen Smith, who averaged 11.7 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game that season. And truth be told, it was Smith that always looked like the superior NBA prospect, despite being younger and underutilized.   

With Fernando having moved on to life with the Atlanta Hawks, Smith ended up averaging 15.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game in his sophomore season at Maryland. “Stix” shot 53.8 percent from the floor and 36.8 percent from the outside, and he played a big part in Maryland clinching a share of the Big Ten regular-season title. The Terps went 24-7 on the year, which included a 14-6 record in conference play, and Smith made the decision to enter the 2020 NBA draft.

It’s tough to pinpoint where Smith will go in the draft, but he is undoubtedly a first-round talent. While the NBA isn’t as big-man friendly as it once was, Smith boasts the type of skill set that teams should fall in love with.

Smith’s ability to shoot the ball at his size is the most impressive thing he has going for him heading into the draft. Not only did he shoot nearly 37 percent from deep, but he was also in in the 68^th percentile at knocking down triples in half-court situations. He generated 1.063 points per possession on those plays, which is good for any player, let alone one that will likely be playing the center position at the next level. Those numbers were even better when Smith was left unguarded, where he put up 1.289 points per possession, which was good for 78^th percentile in college basketball. The numbers tell a nice story, but here’s a look at how comfortable he is shooting the ball, even with a defender at his feet (video from Synergy Sports):

At Maryland, head coach Mark Turgeon had the freedom to draw up plays for Smith that would normally be exclusive to guards and wings. He did feast on pick-and-pop opportunities, but Smith is also able to shoot off of movement. That will be an asset in the NBA, where some of the most creative offensive minds in the world will be working their magic on the clipboard. Because of that, you can expect to see more action like this:

On top of being an excellent shooter, Smith is also a solid finisher. He’s not quite elite in that regard, but I do believe in him finding success as a roll man in the NBA. He was decent at converting on pick-and-roll plays in college, but I’m confident he’ll add some strength and get even better.

Also in Smith’s offensive arsenal is the ability to excel in transition, while also being superb on the offensive glass. Last season, Smith scored 1.649 points per possession in transition, which put him in the 99^th percentile in all of college hoops. He has threatening rim-running ability, which will make his next point guard extremely happy. And, on the boards, Smith scored 1.423 points per possession on put backs, which put him in the 94^th percentile in the nation. That’s a good sign when considering he averaged 3.2 offensive rebounds per game. Just watch him go to work here:

On the other end of the floor, Smith is a tremendous shot-blocking presence. He uses every bit of his estimated 7-foot-2 wingspan, which is part of the reason he was able to finish last season with 2.4 blocks per game. He also had a solid 8.2 percent block rate, and it’s hard to imagine him not being able to defend the rim at the next level. Overall, he has good timing and his awareness as a post defender is rather impressive. Here he is making life difficult on Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn, who was held to 1-for-5 shooting from the floor in a Feb. 7 loss to Maryland:

Smith is an intelligent defender, as he has shown a clear knowledge of when he needs to be in certain spots on the floor. If he has to step out and show on a ball handler, he’ll do that. But he also knows when it’s his time to get back and cover his man. Look at him cover ground in that same meeting with Illinois:

The biggest concern with Smith is his inability to guard in space. That’s what’s preventing him from being in the conversation as a lottery pick right now, and it also diminishes his defensive awareness significantly. Smith might know where he’s meant to be, and he might make good decisions, but he doesn’t have the lateral speed to step out and defend guards, wings and agile power forwards. That will make him a target as a pick-and-roll defender, and it could mean that he’ll exclusively guard centers in the NBA.

If Smith’s coaches aren’t able to hide him defensively, he’ll need to find a way to work on his lateral quickness. Overall, I see a lot of similarities between Smith and a guy like Myles Turner, who had many of the same issues coming out of college. However, the Indiana Pacers worked tirelessly to open up his hips in order to make his perimeter defense passable. And for the most part, those efforts have been extremely successful.

Considering Smith’s athleticism and coordination, I do think there’s a decent chance that he won’t end up killing his team in pick-and-roll coverage. With his floor-spacing ability on the other end, that would make him a good candidate to turn into an NBA starter. Strength is another question mark heading into the draft, but that doesn’t look like something to seriously worry about. Smith’s frame looks like it can support some added muscle, and he has already proven that he can bang with big bodies in the Big Ten. All in all, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Smith outperformed some of the bigs that go before him. He might not rattle the rim as often as an explosive dunker like James Wiseman, but the things he does well are very valuable.