Could A Disney World-Based Postseason Benefit The Boston Celtics?

If you ask Danny Ainge, the Boston Celtics should already be preparing for the NBA season to resume. “I mean we’re hoping it’s any day,” the Celtics general manager told the Boston Herald last week about the possibility of retarting workouts at the Auerbach Center, “we’re just waiting to hear.” Right now, the state of Massachusetts hasn’t given its approval for the team to allow players to have controlled workouts at the Brighton facility. With the league in discussions to play out all remaining games at the unlikely location of Walt Disney World, one imagines that Ainge is hoping that will influence their decision to give them the go-ahead.

It’s safe to say that barring an unforeseen event, the 2019-20 Celtics season is back from the dead (although TD Garden looks like it won’t be hosting any basketball anytime soon, with or without fans). That doesn’t mean it’s completely guaranteed, however. If anything this year has reinforced, it’s that unprecedented events always lurk around the corner, and a second wave of the coronavirus could always sweep along and render NBA Commissioner Adam Silver’s best-laid plans entirely moot. For the sake of this exercise, let’s predict things go perfectly: what exactly will things look like for the Celtics if they start playing meaningful games in July or August?

Well, first of all, the league might skip right to the postseason. A popular idea currently floating around would involve limiting the field of returning teams to the 16 currently in line to make the playoffs. Interestingly enough, the NBA could decide to forgo the concept of conferences altogether, a decision that would most likely not favor the Celtics. CBS Boston took a look at that scenario and noted that this would set up a potential second-round matchup with Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers that would leave them clear underdogs.

There’s also the potential of replacing the first round with a group stage that would give teams currently outside the playoff bubble a chance to advcance. The 43-21 Celtics, currently third in the Eastern Conference, are three games behind the second-place Toronto Raptors and have a postseason appearance already locked up regardless of what happens. Their chances at overtaking Toronto don’t look great even in the unlikely event that the league play out the remaining regular season games. The Celtics therefore might prefer that the league remain conservative when it returns. It feels like the potential to increase their standings might not be worth the risk of adding any further uncertainty. Honestly, they could just be in “let’s hope we don’t suffer any major injuries” mode already.

If the league goes right into the postseason under the current rules—and it really is difficult to see how the NBA can justify continuing with the regular season, especially considering the sacrifices they would be asking players on already-eliminated teams to make—it wouldn’t quite be business at usual. Given the near-lock that the entire tournament would take place in the same city, the traditional home-court advantage of the playoffs would be negligible. Nobody would actually be playing at home except, to a certain degree, maybe the currently eighth-seeded Orlando Magic although even they wouldn’t be using their normal facilities. There won’t be any travel, no psychological benefit of playing in familiar circumstances (things will be strange for everybody) and the home crowd won’t have any affect on the action because there won’t be a home crowd.

It’s not impossible that, assuming that the Eastern Conference playoffs go as scheduled, this all could end up be an unexpected boon for Boston. If the traditional playoffs were to start immediately—and excitingly that isn’t just a hypothetical here—the Celtics would first face the Philadelphia 76ers with theoretical home court advantage for whatever that would mean. Should they beat the Sixers, and let’s remember that they will be a tough out even if their season has so far been a disappointment, they would lose that nominal advantage if the would end up later playing either the Raptors or Bucks. In our potential fan-free, Orlando-based quarantine-affected postseason, they wouldn’t be quite at the disadvantage as they otherwise would have been with their opponents potentially having that additional “home” game.

So, as the NBA continues to decide exactly how the new season is supposed to work, the best thing for the Celtics might be for the league to skip right to the playoffs but otherwise not change anything else. With the entire roster finally healthy, that might end up giving them the best chance at showing how talented this team could actually be. With that in mind, it’s understandable that Ainge is eager for basketball activities to resume again although, obviously, it’s understandable that the state is being as cautious as it is. As it constantly bears repeating, it’s the virus that will ultimately dictates when life will ultimately resume.