Grassroots hold the key to government formation

Nobody actively wants to go into coalition.

That is to say that few people join a political party intent on reaching a compromise over their core beliefs. Of course, many at the top level of politics understand that coalition governments are a reality of our electoral system and that sometimes you have to hold your nose and get on with things.

Within Fine Gael, the weighting of votes means that if the party's "Reference Group" - the name it is giving to its negotiators - comes back with a deal that is palatable, there will be few in the parliamentary party who vote against it. 

That alone will put the deal on nearly 50% of the poll, with a further 25% reserved for constituency electors, 15% for city and county councillors and 10% for the party's national executive.

While by no means cut and dried, it is hard to see how a deal passes muster with those at the table and fails after. For the other two parties, however, it's less clear.

In Fianna Fáil, there is a vocal cohort aghast at what they see as the tearing up of the party's founding principles in order to ensure Michéal Martin avoids the fate of being the first party leader not to lead the country.

They do not believe that doing business with Fine Gael is good for the party's present or future and tramples on its past.

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'No guarantee' programme for government will be approved by Fianna Fáil party members

This argument is currently being thrashed out, with some saying that it is better to be able to force change from within, but this raises the elephant in the room of Sinn Féin.

Fianna Fáil's insistence on not negotiating with Mary Lou McDonald's party meant that the path to a Dáil majority ran through Fine Gael, despite what some might have argued in March.

With 18,000 members each entitled to a vote, the Fianna Fáil voting process will take time and some in the party will caution that rejection of a deal will lead to a second election at a time when the party is on 16% support and Fine Gael is ascendant.

For the Greens the situation is every bit as thorny.

The key for the party will be finding the right mix of policy commitments and concessions from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. If the Greens can go back to their 3,000 members with a major commitment to Ireland's environment, they can sell a deal, which is why there has been such focus from Mr Ryan on the 7% cut in emissions.

Party sources say that it is hard to say which way Green members will vote - the party's anti-government representatives have been vocal but there is a large silent majority from whom nothing has been heard and upon whom much rests.

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Green Party members fear health, housing could be sacrificed during Govt talks