World Bank: Belarus’ Economy Can Face a Severe Shock

As a small, open, commodity-exporting economy, Belarus is heavily exposed to shocks caused by deep contractions in its main trading partners, the collapse of oil prices, and global financial volatility related to the COVID-19 pandemic, says the World Bank’s latest Economic Update for Belarus, released today. Belarus’ economy is anticipated to contract by at least 4 percent in 2020 – the largest decline in 25 years – and growth is expected to remain weak in the medium-term.

“The impacts of COVID-19 will be severe for Belarus,” said Alex Kremer, World Bank Country Manager for Belarus. “A faster return to normal, however, could be achieved by enabling social distancing to slow the spread of the virus and cash transfers to assist vulnerable households. In addition, policy measures to boost competitiveness and productivity will allow Belarus to take advantage of global trends expected to accelerate after COVID-19. These include the growth of digital services, as well as more opportunities for goods and services, as producers seek to diversify supply chains and relocate manufacturing closer to home.”

A Special Topic Note that is part of the Update reviews the experiences of other countries in responding to the pandemic and formulates potential policy measures for Belarus.

“To help mitigate the social and economic impacts of the pandemic, it is critical to strengthen support to the poor and most vulnerable,” said Kiryl Haiduk, World Bank Country Economist for Belarus. “In Belarus, this could include increasing the coverage and generosity of means-tested benefits, such as the cash component of the targeted social assistance program (GASP), and increasing unemployment support.”

Since the Republic of Belarus joined the World Bank in 1992, lending commitments to the country have totaled $2.1 billion. In addition, the country has received grants of $31 million. The active investment lending portfolio financed by the World Bank in Belarus includes ten projects totaling $1.05 billion.