How radical League One proposal could affect Bristol City’s play-off hopes

A League One chairman has made a radical proposal which would shake up the promotion and relegation picture in the Championship

While the vast majority of clubs in the Premier League and the Championship are hell bent on completing their campaigns when safe to do so, the picture further down the EFL pyramid is much different.

All divisions from League Two and below have agreed to terminate the 2019/20 season due to the coronavirus pandemic, and League One is set to follow suit this week.

The method of concluding these divisions has varied between different organising bodies. Non-league seasons have been declared null and void, while the EFL looks set to apply a points per game (PPG) method to determine promotion and relegation.

Although Championship clubs are preparing to conclude the campaign when it is safe to do so, if that becomes impossible in an agreeable timeframe the division is likely to use the same methods implemented further down the EFL.

As it stands, an unweighted PPG model – which appears to be the EFL’s preferred method if the season is cut short, would see Bristol City – who are just a point behind sixth-placed Preston North End – narrowly miss out on a play-off berth.

But the Robins could be thrown a lifeline which would not see their efforts across 37 games go to waste, if a radical model with an expanded play-off tournament proposed by a League One chairman wins favour with member clubs.

Tranmere Rovers owner Mark Palios, former chief executive of the Football Association, has submitted a paper to the EFL arguing a margin of error, based on stats from the past three seasons, should be included in PPG calculations.

Palios and his staff have crunched the numbers, finding an average margin of error of +6.3 per cent to -5.45 per cent when comparing teams’ actual performance to projected their PPG in the closing stages of the season.

Tranmere argue that it would be unfair to relegate clubs or see teams miss out on play-off places if the upper end of the margin of error would take them out of the relegation zone or into the top six.

Therefore, clubs would only be relegated or miss the play-offs if their PPG plus the margin of error fell short of the required total.

There is a strong degree of self-interest behind Tranmere’s proposal, with Micky Mellon’s side three points from safety in League One with a game in hand, despite a spike in form before the shutdown, and this calculation would see them spared relegation.

In the case of Lee Johnson’s Robins, they sit seventh in the PPG table with 1.49 PPG compared to Preston’s 1.51, but if the upper end of the 6.3 per cent margin of error is applied, City’s theoretical PPG would be 1.58 – enough for a place in an expanded play-off tournament.

Tranmere Rovers' PPG proposal to the EFL

If a decision is taken by a division to end their season now (or indeed at some point in the future but before all of the fixtures are completed):

a) The league table is calculated using a simple PPG basis;
b) There is then applied to the table the statistical average actual margin for error over the last 3 years (being +6.3 or – 5.45%);
c) Teams in the automatic promotion spots even where the margin for error is applied, should be automatically promoted;
d) Teams in the play-off places or who could be in the play-off places where the margin for error is applied should be invited (but not compelled) to compete in a play-off tournament; and
e) There would either be no relegations, or relegations only of clubs who would be relegated even after the margin of error has been applied (see detailed explanation below).

Under the Tranmere method, Millwall, Cardiff City, Blackburn and Swansea City would also be “invited but not compelled to compete in a play-off tournament”, should they deem the financial cost of staging games behind closed doors and implementing rigorous Covid-19 testing programmes is affordable.

At the other end of the table, Charlton Athletic would be spared relegation but Luton Town and Barnsley would still go down if Palios’ proposed method is applied.

Tranmere have also proposed a similar proposal, but without relegation altogether – however the EFL seems set that relegation must take place even if the season is cut short, so that version of the calculation is unlikely to get off the ground.

“We believe that either of these two variants of our proposal would enable each division to take its own decision now on whether to stop or to play on,” Palios wrote.

“In the event that they play on but later have to terminate, there would be a clear basis for what happens next.

“Our proposals result in no financial harm to any club. Furthermore, they maximise the promotion opportunities for clubs on a sporting merit basis, and they take away some of the inherent unfairness in using a raw PPG calculation.

“In circumstances when the season is being disrupted by circumstances entirely beyond everyone’s control, we respectfully submit that this represents the fairest way of ending the season, maintaining the integrity of the football pyramid and the financial stability of its clubs.”