League One chairman makes last-ditch proposal to save club from relegation and expand play-offs

Tranmere Rovers owner Mark Palios believes his proposals deliver 'more sporting integrity'

A League One chairman has made a last-ditch proposal to the EFL which would save his club from relegation, hoping to curtail the “unfairness of points per game” (PPG) calculations.

Tranmere Rovers owner Mark Palios has put forward a complicated method of settling the outcome of the League One season, modifying the unweighted PPG proposal the majority of third-tier clubs are expected to approve this week.

Most League One clubs have nine or 10 games remaining, but many are set on not fulfilling those fixtures due to the lofty costs that would be incurred by a rigorous coronavirus testing programme and playing behind closed doors– a necessity if the league is to resume.

Instead, the majority are set to back an immediate end to the season, avoiding a bill that could reach £600,000, with a PPG calculation used to determine promotion, relegation and the play-off places.

Palios, a former Whites midfielder and Football Association chief executive, argues a margin of error is applied to the calculation – meaning the Birkenhead side would be spared the drop to League Two.

Tranmere enjoyed a resurgence in form before the Covid-19 outbreak forced a moratorium of elite sport and normal life altogether, winning three consecutive games to leave Micky Mellon’s side three points from safety with a game in hand on AFC Wimbledon.

But that spike in form would prove futile if unweighted PPG were used, consigning the Whites – plus Bolton Wanderers and Southend United to relegation.

Palios, who won awards in an accountancy career which dovetailed with his late playing days, believes it would be “fairer, have more sporting integrity, and would inflict the least financial damage on clubs at a time of extraordinary difficulty,” if a margin of error was included.

Tranmere Rovers' PPG proposal to the EFL

If a decision is taken by a division to end their season now (or indeed at some point in the future but before all of the fixtures are completed):

a) The league table is calculated using a simple PPG basis;
b) There is then applied to the table the statistical average actual margin for error over the last 3 years (being +6.3 or – 5.45%);
c) Teams in the automatic promotion spots even where the margin for error is applied, should be automatically promoted;
d) Teams in the play-off places or who could be in the play-off places where the margin for error is applied should be invited (but not compelled) to compete in a play-off tournament; and
e) There would either be no relegations, or relegations only of clubs who would be relegated even after the margin of error has been applied (see detailed explanation below).

Tranmere, in a lengthy paper submitted to the EFL, have crunched the numbers from the previous three seasons to see how clubs actually performed compared to their projected PPG in the closing stages of the season.

They found an average margin of error of +6.3 per cent to -5.45 per cent, with clubs seeing peaks and troughs in form on the pitch.

If the top end of the average margin of error was applied to the calculation, Coventry City and Rotherham United would still win automatic promotion to the Championship, while seemingly doomed Bolton and Southend would be relegated.

But Tranmere in the final relegation spot, and their fellow strugglers above them, would be spared the drop.

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And clubs in play-off contention that could earn a play-off place if the margin of error is applied would be “invited but not compelled to compete in a play-off tournament”.

For Bristol Rovers, who are keen to play their remaining games, it will make little to a season which is almost certain to finish with a mid-table berth, regardless of how the campaign concludes.

Tranmere have also proposed a similar proposal, but without relegation altogether – however the EFL seems set on the view that relegation must take place even if the season is cut short, so that version of the calculation is unlikely to get off the ground.

“We believe that either of these two variants of our proposal would enable each division to take its own decision now on whether to stop or to play on,” Palios wrote.

“In the event that they play on but later have to terminate, there would be a clear basis for what happens next.

“Our proposals result in no financial harm to any club. Furthermore, they maximise the promotion opportunities for clubs on a sporting merit basis, and they take away some of the inherent unfairness in using a raw PPG calculation.

“In circumstances when the season is being disrupted by circumstances entirely beyond everyone’s control, we respectfully submit that this represents the fairest way of ending the season, maintaining the integrity of the football pyramid and the financial stability of its clubs.”