PPE - how much is enough?

A high-profile announcement by the Liberals this week that automotive giant General Motors would make 10 million medical masks omitted a detail that speaks to the long road ahead in Canada's fight against COVID-19.

Those masks will be made over the next year.

So too will much of the millions of gloves, gowns, and litres of hand sanitizer that are part of the federal government's bulk buy of crucial personal protective gear needed to help slow the spread of COVID-19.

Though goods are being handed out as soon as they do arrive in Canada — 42 plane loads to date, the government said this week — the reality is many of the orders being placed won't meet the demand created by the current outbreak of COVID-19.

But the bigger issue is the next one.

"The analysis is that there is an unpredictability about the way in which the virus may spread in the coming months," said federal procurement minister Anita Anand in an interview with The Canadian Press this week.

"As a result our approach has been to order supplies over and above the requests of the provinces and territories so that if there is a second wave and we do need ventilators, for example, we are prepared."

At the outset of the pandemic's arrival in Canada, the issue of how many ventilators Canada had was of pressing concern.

Hospitals and the public watched in horror as shortages in other countries of the key piece of equipment needed to treat the most severe form of the illness had devastating results.

It was then, back in mid-March, that public health officials and governments began locking down Canada, asking people to stay home to curb the spread of COVID-19 and buy time for Canada's health care system to get ready for an expected major wave here.

Hospitals, provinces and the federal government scrambled to order the equipment. Nearly 30,000 ventilators were ordered by Ottawa alone, but only 203 have arrived so far.

However, physical distancing efforts did largely spare a crush at hospitals, chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam said this week.

At the same time, shortages of other pieces of protective gear are being blamed for disastrous outbreaks at the country's long-term care homes.

Soldiers working in Ontario homes documented how staff underused or misused supplies, in part because of scarcity and cost.

The question then becomes — at what point will Canada have enough?

"In terms of establishing a ceiling on personal protective equipment, that is still an analysis that we are undertaking as we see demand for personal protective equipment continue to grow," Anand said.

An Ottawa-based firm has estimated demand for disposable masks alone will be upwards of 3.3 billion over the next year.

Shortages have exposed holes in Canada's supply chain that the government is trying to fill by encouraging local industry to pivot to make everything from the finished products to the raw materials required.

Over 6,300 Canadians companies have knocked on the door of the federal government offering to help produce COVID-19 related goods, Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains said in an interview.

Over 700 have since retooled or scaled up to build personal protective equipment.