US Conference Board Consumer Confidence: Dollar risk premium subsides as market panic fades

Confidence edged higher in May after six-year low in second sign of consumer stability while New Home Sales ticked higher April, belying predictions for a collapse. Joseph Trevisani, an analyst at FXStreet, believes economy expectations are increasing, boosting consumers’ sentiment.

Read: CB Consumer Confidence Index recovers modestly to 86.6 in May

Key quotes

“The Conference Board reported its long-running confidence index edged higher to 86.6 in May from April’s 85.7 score.” 

There were two other tentative signs that the bottom may be near. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index rose to -49.2 in May from its all-time low of -74 in April. New Home Sales in April, which had been projected to deepen the March 13.7% tumble at -21.7%, rose instead 0.6% to a 623,000 annual pace from the prior 619,000.

“The combination of optimistic news on several vaccines, the better than forecast US data, and the powerful equity rally prompted by the first two, helped to convince traders that the remaining pandemic risk premium in the US dollar is fast becoming an anachronism.”

“Unless there is a profound and unexpected revival in viral infection and fatality percentages and the market recovery from the pandemic panic is well underway.”