Prospects for global economic recovery look bleak – Reuters poll
by Dhwani MehtaThe latest Reuters survey of more than 250 economists over the past few weeks showed that the clouds over the global economic recovery have darkened again, with a V-shaped recovery unlikely on the cards.
Key findings
“Recessions in most major economies would be deeper this year than previously predicted.
Almost three-quarters of economists, 69 of 94, who answered an additional question said the recovery would be either U-shaped, with a prolonged trough, or like a tick mark where the speed of the recovery is not as quick as the drop-off.
Only 15 respondents predicted a strong, V-shaped recovery. The others said it would be W-shaped, where a vigorous rebound result in another sharp slump, or L-shaped where the economy flatlines after the downturn.
The world economy is now forecast to shrink 3.2% this year vs. a 2.0% contraction predicted in the April 23 Reuters poll.
No economist polled expected growth in 2020, with forecasts in a -0.3% to -6.7% range. The outlook under a worst-case scenario was -6.0%, with those in a -3.0% to -15.0% range.
Forecasts for global economic growth tended to range from 2.3% to 3.6% before the pandemic struck.”