Chennai a ticking time bomb, more tests must to defuse it

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The panel of medical experts advising the Tamil Nadu government on Tuesday pushed for ramping up testing to identify Covid-19 infections in the early stages for effective treatment, warning that, otherwise, Chennai especially could see an explosion of cases. Without more testing, the worst-case scenario projections were of up to 2 lakh cases by June-end in Chennai, with fatalities exceeding 1,400.

The committee comprising senior infectious diseases experts, intensivists, pulmonologists, public health experts and epidemiologists told chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswami that Chennai was reporting the same numbers every day for the past few days and the infection rate was looking “abnormal”, probably because testing has been drastically cut down.

Epidemiologists including National Institute of Epidemiology deputy director Dr Prabhdeep Kaur had pointed out Chennai was reporting around 500 cases for almost a week, and the city’s epidemiology graph was different from any other district in the state. Since May 19, the city has reported around 550 cases a day, barring May 23, when it logged 625 cases. “They wanted to know how the same numbers were reported day after day,” said a senior official who attended the meeting.

Public health experts told the government that at least 20 lakh people in Chennai are at high risk as they live in red zones. “Public health experts say at least five per cent of this group is likely to be infected already. If we don’t test and isolate infected people, the virus spread will go up to 10%. And that is the best case scenario if mortality is kept at 0.7%,” said a senior doctor, who was a part of the meeting.

Experts told the government that in the absence of a vaccine or drug of choice, aggressive testing, isolation and treatment are tools to flatten the curve. “We told government to ramp up testing, zoom into zones and keep an intense watch on every ward. When we test more people we will find more cases. Else cases lurking during lockdown will erupt when there is a relaxation,” said infectious diseases expert Dr V Ramasubramanian, a member of the committee.

The number of people tested has come down from mid-May, doctors pointed out. On Tuesday, 9,677 people in TN were tested for the viral infection, a drop from 11,428 cases on Monday. In sample collection centres such as Bharathi College for Women some people were turned away as the day’s quantity of testing kits were over. Patients, who came with fever and cough, were sent back home.

Former city health officer Dr P Kuganandam said the state has done well so far in containing the mortality. “But we have not been able to stop the spread within containment zones. If lockdown hasn’t worked inside containment zones, officials will have to look for alternate ways to ensure people wear masks and maintain social distance,” he said.

Although many senior officials did not agree with experts on the need to expand testing, some senior officials said with 68 testing labs, the state has the capacity to double the sample size.