Bettors Not Believers In Baltimore Ravens 2020 Season Win Total

Baltimore Ravens and AFC North Odds and Season Win Totals

The Baltimore Ravens enter the 2020 season as a Super Bowl favorite alongside the Kansas City Chiefs. Those two teams are also tied for the highest regular season win total with an over/under set at 11.5 wins. But bettors or not yet buying into Baltimore despite one of the easiest schedules in the league.

The NFL released the 2020 schedule earlier this month, which followed the most-watched NFL Draft ever. More than 55 million viewers tuned in over the networks and digital channels. Bettors and bookmakers were busy, and some of the leading sportsbooks and operators set record handles on wagers and prop bets that proved popular. That included William Hill, who posted on Twitter today that the 75% of the season win total bets on the Ravens were ‘under’ 11.5. That percentage only trailed the Rams under bets.

William Hill Director of Trading Nick Bogdanovich also noted that Baltimore’s ‘under’ win total has also “attracted 89% of the total dollars wagered.”

Overall, 45% of the total dollars wagered and 36% of the total number of tickets of all AFC North win total bets have been on Baltimore.

Bogdanovich sent me an email today and said, “there is very little action on the Ravens or Browns season wins thus far.” That’s not too surprising, as handicappers and astute bettors evaluate team’s schedules, personnel and understand the risk factors of injuries. A preseason injury or key season ending injury like Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger suffered last September can prove costly to ‘over’ season win bets. Also, most bettors don’t want to tie their money up for no good reason, and a significant increase in wagers will come closer to the start of the season.

At William Hill sportsbooks, the football futures market draws interest and includes division odds. The Ravens (-260) are the prohibitive favorite to win the AFC North. A $260 bet would return $100 profit (or $26 to win $10). The Steelers (+370), Browns (+500) and Bengals (+3000) follow. A $100 bet on the Browns would return a $500 profit if Cleveland wins the AFC North.

The Ravens are a popular favorite, but it’s the Browns over 8.5 wins that has received 55% of the total number of tickets and 53% of the total dollars wagered - the most popular bet for both total number of tickets and total dollars wagered. 

Bogdanovich is still bullish on Baltimore, and believes the Ravens are “every bit as good as the Chiefs if not better.” He noted the Ravens had a very good off season in free agency and the NFL Draft, which scored top rankings by some draft analysts.

Baltimore's point differential of +249 last season ranked second since 2006. Only the undefeated season by the New England Patriots in 2007 was better. Baltimore averaged 33 points per game and scored 531 points. The only other AFC team within 100 points scored of the Ravens was the Super Bowl champion Chiefs, who scored 451 points.

Yet despite an easier schedule in 2020, bettors are not yet betting heavily on the Ravens to go over their win total. Pro Football Focus notes that since 2006, there have been 60 teams that managed a record of 12-4 or better. Just 19 of them were able to win at least 12 games in the following season, and 14 of those teams were quarterbacked by either Tom Brady or Peyton Manning.

2020 NFL Regular Season Schedule Grid & Strength Of Schedule

Through many years of handicapping and evaluating NFL match-ups, stats and schedules, I’ve known that there has been misleading, inaccurate and inefficient strength of schedule information.

Baltimore also has one of the easier schedules in 2020. Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis provides a strength of schedule grid and visualized data with detailed analysis. A look at the Ravens 2020 schedule shows they are expected to be favored in every regular season game. A review of some of the Ravens opponents season win totals and you can see why Baltimore’s schedule is favorable. Sportsbooks have not yet set lines on some of the Ravens games against weaker opponents.

DraftKings Sportsbook has already posted betting lines on 10 Ravens games, which includes the Week 3 Monday night match-up against the Chiefs. Baltimore plays two Monday night and Thursday night prime time games, including on Thanksgiving, and a Sunday night showdown at New England. Of course the betting lines will change as the season hopefully moves forward as scheduled. However, it’s worth referencing what bookmakers anticipate the betting lines to be well in advance of the season and then compare each week during the season.

The Jaguars (5) Redskins (5.5) and Bengals (5.5) have the lowest season win totals in the league. Four of the Ravens 16 games are against those bottom tier teams, and another is at home against the New York Giants (6.5).

Along with six games against their own AFC North opponents, the Ravens play each team in the AFC South and NFC East. The remaining two opponents are against first place teams within the AFC from last season, the Chiefs and Texans in back-to-back games in September. First place teams within each conference the previous year must play two other first place teams the following year. That’s part of the schedule formula, which includes the second-place, third-place and fourth-place teams in a conference matched in the same way each year.

While many fans and bettors are not as inclined to support losing teams, one William Hill bettor believes in the Bengals. One of the biggest AFC North bets thus far is $2,500 on the Cincinnati Bengals. A bettor took +110 odds and bet over 5.5 season wins. The odds are now -140 ‘over’ 5.5 wins for Cincinnati.

Betting lines, odds and futures including season win totals will continue to be a popular discussion leading into the 2020 season. So will the play of Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, who will trade another 14 win season for a better playoff performance.

You can bet on it.