Looking Back On Stephen Curry’s Phenomenal 2015-16 Season

The extended downtime without basketball, which may be ending soon, has allowed for plenty of opportunities to revisit history. There have been documentaries, all-time moments aired on national television, and social media discussions about overrated and underrated talents.

Over the last two months, it really started to dawn on me. The basketball universe has nearly been through a whole year without Stephen Curry’s genius offensive production.

After the 2019 NBA Finals concluded, with two of his teammates suffering the worst injuries a basketball player can endure, Curry was tasked with entering the 2019-20 season as the only engine to Golden State’s depleted core.

He only played four games this year before breaking his left hand on a scary fall, with Aron Baynes awkwardly landing on him under the rim. The two-time MVP was out for four months until he returned for just one game. Exactly one week later, the season was postponed due to COVID-19.

It’s never fun having a dangerous scorer of Curry’s caliber sidelined for most of the season. One huge consequence of his absence is clear: The collective NBA audience tends to forget about a player’s greatness, or their status among all of the league’s stars, when they’re out of action.

Curry’s unfortunate season and this random layoff – dating back to March 11 – have resulted in many player rankings, cross-era comparisons, and pointless discussions to pass the time. The common thread in all of them is how often Curry gets brushed aside, or the degree to which is strengths and attributes get undervalued.

The title for “most disrespected superstar by his peers” has long been awarded to Curry, for reasons that aren’t entirely recognizable. You can have your hunches, and that’s where the idea of a small, skinny point guard taking the league by storm comes to mind. Golden State’s wide-ranging talent also can’t be ignored, as it’s clear many fans (and current players) believe Curry’s perception is strictly tied to the “help” around him.

Like most sentiments professed on social media, it’s bogus.

Rarely has a player with Curry’s career résumé been questioned, or nitpicked, the way he is. Over the holiday weekend, the idea of Curry being an inferior player to James Harden started to gain traction. It sparked a debate that should’ve concluded with Curry eliminating Harden in the playoffs in every meeting they’ve had (four separate years). In their postseason battles, Curry has won 14 of the 20 games, scored with higher efficiency (59.5% true shooting to 57.3%), and won a championship as the best player on his team. The last distinction is something Harden hasn’t achieved by age 30, along with reaching an NBA Finals as the primary offensive weapon.

Aside from the recent comparisons, it’s also fascinating how a player with such a high and prestigious peak constantly gets dismissed.

Of course, the argument of Curry winning zero Finals MVPs throughout his five appearances is brought into the fold – at least when his name is suggested for any historical list. Never mind the fact his 2015 championship performance closely mirrored Dirk Nowitzki’s highly-commended 2011 Finals MVP. Never mind his 26.5 points per game in 28 career outings on the grandest stage, while he holds the sixth-highest efficiency among all star players.

His individual peak, referring to the nuclear 2015-16 season that resulted in all 131 first-place votes for MVP, wasn’t just the most impressive seven-month stretch of the decade. It was arguably the greatest 70-plus game sample by anyone in NBA history. Pound-for-pound, for any position, across any era.

For starters, it was Curry’s healthiest and most durable season relative to his workload. He played 79 of 82 games, missing only three due to rest. One of the driving factors in Curry not resting more after the All-Star break was San Antonio’s pursuit of the No. 1 seed. While the Warriors rattled off 73 wins, the Spurs were right on their tails until the final two weeks of the schedule (finishing with 67).

In those 79 games he played, Curry was on the floor for 34.2 minutes per game. His traditional numbers were off the chart, as he averaged 30.1 points 5.4 rebounds, and 6.7 assists. He shot 56.6% on 9.0 two-point attempts per game, 45.4% on 11.2 threes, and 90.8% on his 5.1 free throws per contest. By the antiquated standards of the 50-40-90 club, he became the highest-scoring member.

The most comical part about looking at the 12 individual 50-40-90 seasons: Curry’s 2016 campaign featured 886 total long-range attempts. The next-highest is Steve Nash with 381 back in 2007-08. Keep in mind, the very elite shooters convert 40% of their threes, which means they simultaneously hurt their field goal percentage by launching more triples. Maintaining the 50% threshold despite taking 505 more threes than anyone else in the club is certifiably insane.

Matching up Curry’s offensive production with other legendary seasons, the best method is to use a per-75 possession scale. It allows for a neutralization in pace, since the average number of possessions in a single game have differed in every decade. In the mid-1980s, teams had roughly 102 possessions with some teams eclipsing 105 per game. In the 1990s, it sunk to the other end of the spectrum. From 1991 to 1999, the average pace around the league decreased from 97.8 to a wild 88.9. It was all over the place.

Adjusting for the era differences, the following players have regular seasons with at least 30 points, five rebounds, and five assists per 75 team possessions. The data only goes back to 1973-74. They are sorted by Win Shares Per 48 Minutes, a catch-all metric that approximates value on the court:

The only 30-5-5 season per 75 possessions that could be deemed more “impactful” is Michael Jordan’s 1991 run, which culminated in his first championship. LeBron James’ 2008-09 season was tied with Curry in win shares per 48 minutes, mostly due to the defensive cyclone LeBron could be in his athletic prime. However, Curry’s effective field goal percentage in 2016 was a full 10 percentage points higher than LeBron’s in 2009. It’s also 4.7 percentage points greater than the second-most efficient season in the table above – Giannis Antetokounmpo’s current MVP year.

Among the 18 individual seasons shown, Curry’s magical stretch had the highest Offensive Box Plus-Minus (10.3). Tracy McGrady followed with 9.8, along with the aforementioned LeBron year at 9.5.

In total Box Plus-Minus, which factors in defense as well, Curry’s 2016 season is No. 4 in history at 11.94, trailing only Jordan in 1991 (12.01), Jordan in 1988 (12.96), and LeBron in 2009 (13.24). Those four seasons, in addition to LeBron’s 2012-13 that wasn’t listed here, are probably the leading examples of any question asking, “What is the greatest and most unbelievable form of basketball we’ve ever seen?”

Two seasons from MJ, two from the only player (as of now) that can rival him, and one from the best player under 6’4” in league history.

Something to remember about Curry’s incredible follow-up to the 2015 title was how they started the next season, answering critics who thought the field would catch on to a “jump-shooting team.”

From October 27 to December 11, the Warriors didn’t lose a game. They rattled off 24 straight victories by an average of 13.9 points per 100 possessions. Golden State’s offensive rating during the streak was 5.6 points per 100 better than Oklahoma City, the No. 2 offense. Curry was engulfed in flames during the 24-0 stretch, hitting 125 threes. During that span, nobody else had eclipsed 71.

Oh, and he pretty much kept the same pace all year long – finishing with 402 threes, which is still a record today despite Harden attempting 142 more last year than Curry did in 2016.

By the end of the season, Curry had a 71-8 record in the games he suited up for. That’s a winning percentage of .899, which is the best among any MVP in the NBA’s existence. Jordan’s Bulls went 72-10 (.878) with him in the lineup in 1996 and LeBron’s most successful season was 66-15 (.815).

Since play-by-play data for on-off performance isn’t available beyond 1996-97, we can’t dig deep into MJ’s impact for the Bulls throughout his prime. So, let’s look at how LeBron’s two-best seasons stack up with 2016 Curry:

• 2016 Curry/Warriors: 117.5 offensive rating, 99.8 defensive rating, +17.7 net rating with Curry on the floor, +12.1% in effective FG%.
• 2008-09 James/Cavs: 114.0 offensive rating, 99.4 defensive rating, +14.6 net rating with James on the floor, +6.2% in effective FG%.
• 2012-13 James/Heat: 114.2 offensive rating, 101.9 defensive rating, +12.3 net rating with James on the floor, +7.6% in effective FG%.

With Curry’s torrid shooting, Golden State had an unfathomable gap in effective field goal percentage compared to their opponents (58.9% to 46.8%) while he was active.

One of the most underrated components about this 2016 season was the minute total for Curry. Before Giannis and the Bucks decided to show off by demolishing teams in 30 minutes or less, sitting out fourth quarters was a Warriors staple.

Breaking down Curry’s by quarter, he had sublime consistency:

• 1st quarter: 11.2 minutes, +20.1 net rating, 64.7% true shooting on 30.6% usage.
• 2nd quarter: 6.7 minutes, +15.3 net rating, 69.1% true shooting on 28.1% usage.
• 3rd quarter: 11.3 minutes, +13.7 net rating, 66.3% true shooting on 32.4% usage.
• 4th quarter: 6.3 minutes, +24.3 net rating, 71.2% true shooting on 34.7% usage.

What’s even crazier is how many fourth quarters Curry wasn’t involved with. Due to the Warriors having a sizable lead in majority of their games, Curry only played in 60 of 79 fourth quarters. He wasn’t needed in 19 (!) of them. Yet, he led the NBA with 11 games scoring 40-plus points and three games with 50-plus.

In the clutch-time situations that were necessary for Golden State, Curry always came through in a strong way. As a team, the Warriors only played 144 clutch minutes in 2015-16 – defined as the score being within five points with five or fewer minutes remaining.

With Curry in the lineup, they were 27-4 in games that featured clutch time. In Curry’s minutes, Golden State outscored its opponents by a laughable 37.1 points per 100 possessions.

For some perspective, since 2009-10, there have been 18 instances of a player holding a clutch usage rating of at least 30% with a net rating of at least 20. Curry sits behind only 2017-18 Chris Paul when it comes to on-court net rating:

However, it’s worth pointing out, he played 122 total clutch minutes to Paul’s 55. Curry’s clutch usage of 41.3% in 2016 was the fifth-highest among those listed above, but his efficiency was greater than every guard outside of Paul.

The preeminent fourth-quarter moment of that year was likely Curry’s most absurd night of the whole dynasty (at least in the regular season).

February 27, 2016 — in Oklahoma City, of all places — was the evening Curry put his foot on the throat of the entire league. In some ways, it was the game that solidified his status as the best player in the world at that given moment ... before LeBron snatched his title back during the 2016 Finals.

He walked into Chesapeake Energy Arena as the MVP favorite and walked out a cold-blooded killer. Scoring 46 points in less than 38 minutes, Curry abused the Thunder in a myriad of ways. He poured in 12-of-16 three-pointers, breaking his single-season record for total triples ... with roughly seven weeks left in the schedule.

Little did OKC know, it would foreshadow what was soon to come in the 2016 West Finals Game 7, with Curry drilling impossible rainbow jumpers over much taller humans:

In his 122 clutch minutes that year, his shooting breakdown was unparalleled:

• 2-pointers: 22/44 – 50.0%
• 3-pointers: 16/42 – 38.1%
• Free throws: 45/49 – 91.8%
• +103 raw plus-minus

Getting to the line wasn’t a problem for Curry when things got really tight. For the season, his free throw attempt rate (number of FTAs per field goal attempt) was .250.

When the clutch situations arrived, his free throw attempt rate rose to .570. He wasn’t just an outside shooter. Driving, finishing, and drawing contact was his specialty when needed.

Shooting off-the-dribble, though, is Curry’s super skill that nobody can really match. Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden can get sneakily close in certain moments. But not for a full season. Trae Young might be on a similar level one day, but not in 2020.

Glancing at Curry’s pull-up shooting numbers from 2016, you quickly realize he mastered an unguardable shot off the pick-and-roll:

Kevin Durant, his eventual teammate, is a seven-footer with a delicate shooting touch. And he was still nearly 10 percentage points behind Curry in pull-up eFG%.

For the NBA, 2015-16 was one of those seasons everyone will be talking about years — and decades — down the road. By a lot of measures, it included the most impressive scoring tear in history.

Following the regular season, the 2016 playoffs lived up to the hype. The only negative resulting from the postseason was Curry suffering an MCL sprain in the first round, sidelining him for two weeks.

Two teams overcame 3-1 deficits, one in the Conference Finals and the other in the NBA Finals. The Cleveland Cavaliers spoiled Curry’s coronation by having LeBron tap into his monstrous 2013 self, wrecking everything in his sight for Games 5-7 when it mattered most.

Although Curry and the Warriors finished one win short of stamping their names above the 1996 Bulls, their regular season should never be discredited. The powers a 6’3” shooter unleashed on the league ultimately led to a shift in basketball strategy and the sport’s future.