COVID-19’s Spread: A Continental Disparity [Infographic]

So far at least, it seems like Africa is on a completely different trajectory to the rest of the world in terms of COVID-19 cases. According to the latest data from the World Health Organization, the whole of Africa had 119,000 confirmed cases as of May 27, approximately 5,000 more than the U.S. state of Illinois. By contrast, the WHO's Americas region had 2.45 million cases while Europe had 2.04 million cases. Even though most experts are attributing Africa's low number of cases to the continent's woefully inadequate testing capacities, there are genuine hopes that it could be spared the worst of the pandemic.

When it comes to testing, the U.S. conducted 42.79 tests per 1,000 of its inhabitants as of May 24 while Canada carried out 39.21 per 1,000 of the population as of May 25, according to website Our World In Data. Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, only carried out 0.22 tests per 1,000 inhabitants as of the latter date, though its authorities have stated that they are focusing on clusters of outbreaks rather than widespread testing of the population. Elsewhere, Ethiopia's testing rate was slightly higher at 0.73 tests per 1,000 inhabitants while South Africa's was significantly higher at 9.84.

Even though the low rate of testing across Africa is raising fears that the coronavirus is spreading undetected, there are hopes that this may not be the case. Last week, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention director Dr. John Nkengasong said that the continent has not experienced a spike in unexplained community deaths nor massive flooding of hospitals. Nevertheless, Nkengasong urged caution, stating that the African continent needs to drastically increase testing and strive to test at least 1% of its population or 13 million people.

Many African countries are still experiencing a chronic shortage of medical equipment while health systems remain fragile in many places due to years of conflict. Models suggest that 3 million people could contract COVID-19 across the continent while 300,000 could die in a worst-case scenario. As of May 27, Africa's death toll stood at just over 3,500.

So far, experts are struggling to understand why that figure is so low and some have cited the continent's youthful population, warmer weather and prevalence of BCG vaccinations against tuberculosis as possible factors. It also has to be mentioned that droplet-spread diseases such as influenza have traditionally spread at a slower pace in Africa. The following infographic compares daily new COVID-19 cases in different WHO regions with Africa's extremely low case count immediately visible. Despite the positive trend, experts are warning the continent's governments to remain extremely cautious until scientific evidence emerges to explain why COVID-19 is seemingly spreading at a slower pace compared to other global regions.