Who would be relegated if the Premier League ends? Well, it depends
by Jason Burt
The big question about Project Restart is not what will it take to start it, but what will it take to stop it?
Presumably, that is why on the agenda for Thursday's Premier League meeting is the issue of curtailment and the formula that the clubs want to follow should the season be abandoned.
The signs are that the top-flight campaign will resume next month, on June 19 or June 26, even if a number of those involved continually say it is "delicate" or "fragile" when it comes to predicting exactly what will happen.
What is certain is that it is another crucial week for the Premier League, with a vote tomorrow for the next stage of the restart – the protocols to outline the return to contact training – followed by another video conference call 24 hours later.
Also on the agenda on Thursday will be a discussion over the vast sums of money that have to be repaid to the broadcasters, where and when the remaining 92 games will be played and whether neutral venues will be used. But it may well be curtailment that leads to the most heated debate.
The options will be laid out: does the Premier League freeze positions as they are? Does it go for points per game and, if so, is that weighted (taking into account home and away form)? Or, least likely of all, does it do away with relegation?
The Football Association has reiterated that relegation must go ahead under the tripartite agreement between the FA, the Premier League and the English Football League.
Curtailment is to be voted on next week by League One and League Two clubs, with the EFL insisting on promotion and relegation, and those decisions are being made by many teams on economic grounds, with the argument that matches behind closed doors mean they cannot afford to play.
For the Premier League, curtailment will only happen if there is a health or safety issue. We do not know what it would take to call off the league but a spike in coronavirus cases, an outbreak at one club or government intervention may well do it. But what if there was even just one serious case involving a player or member of staff?
What is intriguing about Thursday's meeting is why curtailment is even on the agenda. It means that three clubs will come off the call knowing they are going down if the season is not completed. They are Norwich, Aston Villa and Bournemouth, if the formula is unweighted points per game, with West Ham replacing Bournemouth if the weighted system is selected.
A cynic might say that forcing the issue now might divide the clubs, especially the bottom six, who have been more resistant to Project Restart.
The Premier League would dispute this but it is intriguing that it has included curtailment as an item on an agenda which is otherwise geared towards completing the season.
Deciding the method now will bring clarity, but also confusion. For example, what happens if the season restarts and, two rounds in, has to end? What happens if Chelsea lose both their first two games and are overtaken by Manchester United and Wolves and find themselves out of the Champions League places because they have played 29 games in normal conditions and two behind closed doors after a break of more than three months? What if they had to play those games without N'Golo Kante because of his concerns over coronavirus?
What if Troy Deeney does not return for Watford, and maybe a couple of other key players stay away, and they drop into the bottom three before the season is abandoned? Presumably, the results will stand and the table will end after 31 matches. Otherwise, why play the games?
There is another, even more sensitive issue. What if a team are in the bottom three and their star player displays symptoms of COVID-19 on the day of their last game of the season, one they have to win to stay up? There would not be time for him to receive test results, so would there be a temptation to play him even if that would be reckless and would, ultimately, likely be resisted?
What all this suggests is that while it appears logical for the Premier League to decide what happens if the season was to be curtailed now, it is probably not the right time to do so. It is a discussion that can wait.
This is not to criticise the Premier League. These are extraordinary times. With football, the fault lies in the way it is organised - why are the rules not already clear on what happens with a force majeure? Why are there not sufficient contingency funds and cost controls to ensure the leagues are not in this mess in the first place? They should be strong enough to survive when £3 billion a year is being pumped into the Premier League by the broadcasters.
The fairest solution would be to agree that if the season restarts it has to be completed, no matter how long that takes. But that may also prove impossible, given the calendar is already being set for next season. The Premier League has stated it has to begin by Sept 12. The only hope is that if Project Restart does start then it is able to be played to a finish.