Dharavi's doubling rate gets better than city and state

Mumbai: Amid the increasing number of coronavirus cases across the city, residents of Dharavi have something to cheer about. A data by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation's (BMC) G (North) ward has revealed that the doubling rate of the coronavirus outbreak in the Dharavi has increased to 21 days, which is much better than the city's average.

The doubling rate is the amount of time or the number of days required for the coronavirus cases to double. Mumbai's doubling rate as on May 25 is 14 days, while the state's average is 11.9 days. The BMC's G (North) ward officials have attributed this to aggressive screening and testing from the area, that has seen 1,583 cases and 60 fatalities due to Covid-19 so far.

Dharavi reported its first case on April 1, and the first case in the slum on April 4. In the first half of the month, the doubling rate was three days, a trend that gave sleepless nights to civic officials. From five the number of high-risk slums in Dharavi has increased to 13.

Dharavi’s mortality rate, around 4%, is the same as the rest of the city. Of the 1,448 cases analysed, 24% were from within the same family, underscoring the challenge of physical distancing in Asia’s largest slum which is spread across 2.5 sq km with a population density of 227,136 per sq. km.

An area’s doubling rate is calculated on several parameters including the number of tests conducted, an area’s population and the total number of cases detected. Dharavi has seen a better doubling rate on certain days and a poorer one in the earliest weeks of the pandemic. Since the number of days on which cases double varies, a seven-day average is taken into account. The current seven days average for Dharavi has dipped to 30 days due to fewer cases between May 18 and May 20.

“Our doubling rate is showing a positive trend because of the mass screening of citizens that we started very early and continued to date. We have conducted more than 6,000 tests so far, of which we found 1,583 positive cases. We have already completed screening of 3.60 lakh people and the screening is still processing further. The testing is done at multiple levels and includes private doctors. We have also placed more than 6,300 people under institutional quarantine,” said Kiran Dighavkar, assistant municipal commissioner of G (North) ward.

By May 2, Dharavi reported 496 cases and 18 deaths. In just 25 days, the number of cases surged three-fold. Meanwhile, fatalities due to Covid-19 increased by almost 30 per cent during the same time.

On Sunday, Dharavi reported 27 new cases, the number of cases reported on Monday spiked to 42 pushing the total to 1,583. Two earlier deaths were added to Dharavi’s tally on Sunday, pushing it to 60. However, the death audit committee is yet to give its final word on deaths reported.

G (North) ward, of which Dharavi is a part, has an average case growth rate of 5.1%, one of the least in Mumbai right now. Dharavi's recovery percentage is much higher than of the state's and city's recovery percentage. " While the overall recovery percentage of G (North) is 37%, while Dharavi as on May 25 has recorded highest recovery rate at 42 % which is much higher than Mumbai with 27 % and Maharashtra at 30%. We have been fighting daily to contain the spread, these numbers encourage us to stand up and continue our fight," added Dighavkar.

The total number of coronavirus cases in G (North) ward including Dadar, Mahim and Dharavi stood at 2173 on Monday.