Growth rate of corona infection in ‘least affected’ wards rises steadily

Mumbai: As the entire city is reeling under the fear of the rising number of positive coronavirus cases, BMC has started monitoring and calculating the growth rate of Coronavirus infection across all 24 administrative wards. The average growth rate of Covid-19 cases in Mumbai from May 16 to May 22 was 6.61%, according to data released by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) on Sunday.

A civic official said: “We are monitoring the Covid-19 average growth rate in each ward in addition to the doubling rate. It helps to immediately identify a rise in cases in particular wards, which may be low-risk wards.”

Between May 5 and May 11, the average growth rate of the city was at 6.7%. Meanwhile, eight administrative wards, in particular, witnessed a higher growth rate of more than 8%, indicating that these wards would need stringent containment measures and greater participation from citizen groups for observing social distancing norms.

Ironically, the eight wards that have shown a growth rate of more than 8% this week, were the least affected wards initially and reported lesser number of cases than many other wards like G (South) ward, G (North) Ward, E ward and L ward. "This is a clear indication that the number of cases is now slowing down in the wards that were termed as 'worst affected' ones at the beginning of this month, while those which were least affected have been showing a steady rise in the number of cases," said a senior BMC official.

The overall average Covid 19 growth rate for Mumbai from May 16, 2020 to May 22, 2020, is 6.61%. Meanwhile, eight wards in the city have recorded more than 8 per cent growth rate. These wards which will face stricter containment measures include N Ward (Ghatkopar, Pant Nagar, Vidyavihar) with a growth rate of 13. 7%, followed by P (North) and T ward (Mulund east & west, Nahur) 11.9%, P (South) (Goregaon, Malad East) 10.9%, S ward (Bhandup, Powai, Kanjurmarg, parts of Vikhroli) 10%, R (South) (Kandivali, Charkop) 9.4 % R central (Borivali W, Gorai) 8.9 %, F (South) (Parel, Currey Road, Kalachowki, Sewri, GTB Nagar ) 8.2%.

For each ward, the average growth rate is derived by calculating the average daily growth rate in Covid-19 cases over seven days.

BMC officials had projected that the total number of cases in the city will go up to 45, 000 by the end of May 2020. Daksha Shah, deputy executive health officer (EHO), said, “We are trying to bring growth rate as well as the doubling rate of cases down in all wards. Our key focus is micro mapping and identifying areas where new cases are reported and trying to contain the number of cases there. Along with implement stricter containment measures in areas having cluster cases.”