High-risk wards flatten curve

However, wards with few cases initially record rise in infection

Data from the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) show that wards that saw a spike in positive cases during the initial days of the outbreak have been able to flatten the COVID-19 curve, while wards that reported cases later continue to record steep infection curves.

Wards such as Worli, Dharavi, Byculla, and Malabar Hill are reporting an average case growth rate of less than 5%, while wards like Parel, Powai, Mulund, and Malad are recording a sharp increase in cases.

Till last month, four BMC wards — T (Mulund), R Central (Borivali), R North (Dahisar) and C (Kalbadevi) — had the least cases, which the civic body attributed to efficient containment measures. According to the BMC data, between May 16 and 22, the highest average growth rate of 13.7% was recorded in N ward (Ghatkopar), which crossed 1,000 cases on Sunday.

G South ward (Worli) recorded the lowest average case growth rate of 3.4%, while E ward (Byculla, Agripada), which has reported over 1,000 cases, slowed its infection rate to 4.2%

The BMC has divided wards into two categories: case growth rate below 8% and above 8% There are eight wards with a growth rate above 8%. A BMC official said, “We have asked such wards to place maximum high-risk contacts, especially from slums, in institutional quarantine. They have been asked to conduct door-to-door surveys and fever clinics.” The case growth rate is 11.9% in T (Mulund) and P North (Malad) wards, 10.9% in P South ward (Goregaon), and 10% in S ward (Powai, Bhandup). These wards, except N ward, reported fewer cases initially, raising concerns about their pace of testing.

Rapid spread in slums

Prakash Gangadhare, BJP corporator from Mulund, said cases were initially limited to buildings, but now the infection is spreading rapidly in slums. “Cases grew in slums like Indira Nagar. With lockdown rules relaxed, we fear a spike. The biggest issue is lack of hospital beds and ambulances.” T ward has reported 562 cases so far, of which 182 have recovered.

Vinod Mishra, P North ward committee chairman, said, “Cases have risen in slums such as Kurar village in Malvani, where there is no observance of lockdown rules. Police personnel and civic staffers are exhausted. Contact tracing is far from desirable.” P North ward has so far reported 744 cases, of which 215 have recovered.

N ward saw a spurt of 318 cases on May 12 with cases being reported from Savitribai Phule Nagar, Kamraj Nagar, Patel Chowk, Vikhroli Parksite, Barve Nagar, Azad Nagar, and Indira Nagar.

P South ward has reported a case growth rate of 10.9%. Until Monday, it had 690 cases, including 55 deaths. Devidas Kshirsagar, assistant municipal commissioner of P South ward, said, “We have been asked to ramp up contact tracing. In slums, the ratio of high-risk contacts traced to every patient is 1:10.”

A BMC official said the case growth rate depends on an area’s population, especially in slums. He said, “Wards with fewer cases have populations similar to wards with more cases, even slum populations. But since they reported fewer cases in the early weeks, their base value is low. Therefore, in comparison, the case growth rate seems high. In absolute numbers, these wards still have fewer cases.”