Why ‘Tenet,’ ‘Wonder Woman 1984’ And ‘Mulan’ All Face Long Odds At The Box Office

History suggests that Chris Nolan’s sci-fi actioner, DC Films’ sequel and Disney’s remake have to nab at least $50 million in their opening weekends to eventually pass $200 million at the domestic box office.

Tenet, Mulan and Wonder Woman 1984 are the only “biggies” until Black Widow and No Time to Die in November. The rest of the scheduled theatrical releases are horror films (Antebellum, New Mutants, A Quiet Place Part II, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, Candyman and Halloween Kills), overseas-centric actioners (like Paul W.S. Anderson’s video game adaptation Monster Hunter) and presumably responsibly-budgeted thrillers like Henry Golding’s G.I. Joe spin-off Snake Eyes, Michael B. Jordan’s Tom Clancy adaptation Beyond Remorse and Kenneth Branagh’s Agatha Christie mystery Death on the Nile. These movies, pre-coronavirus viability notwithstanding, could succeed without breaking records. However, box office history suggests that Chris Nolan’s sci-fi flick, Disney DIS ’s remake and DC Films’ superhero sequel face an uphill battle to achieve comparative blockbuster success.

Jaws was the first modern blockbuster to top $200 million in its initial theatrical release ($260 million from a $7 million debut) 45 summers ago. Batman, which opened with a then-record $43 million in 1989 on the way to $251 million, was only the tenth. Star Wars and Empire Strikes Back opened in limited release while Return of the Jedi opened with a $41 million Wed-Mon debut. E.T. earned $358 million from a $11 million launch in 1982, while Raiders of the Lost Ark earned $242 million from an $8 million debut. The non-Spielberg/Lucas blockbusters, Beverly Hills Cop, Ghostbusters and Back to the Future (produced by Spielberg, natch), all opened with $11-$15 million before legging out to $211 million-$235 million domestic, or multipliers between 15-19x their respective opening weekends.

1990 saw two incredibly leggy $200 million grossers, as well as one (Kevin Costner’s Dances With Wolves) that would leg out to $184 million (while winning Best Director and Best Picture) from a $14 million Wed-Sun Thanksgiving weekend expansion. A week earlier, Home Alone would open with $17 million. The Chris Columbus/John Hughes comedy, featuring Macaulay Culkin versus the Wet Bandits, would leg out to $286 million domestic, making it the third-biggest movie ever in North America behind Star Wars ($322 million counting reissues) and E.T. ($399 million counting reissues). Oh, and the Patrick Swayze/Demi Moore supernatural romantic thriller Ghost shocked everyone by becoming the biggest hit of the summer, legging to $217 million from a $12 million opening. That was 18x its debut weekend.

By the mid-1990’s, multiplexes were expanding nationwide, and the supply could generally be met for most moviegoers in a given marketplace, which itself gave rise to much bigger opening weekends and thus shorter legs. Spielberg’s Jurassic Park was the first $50 million opener in June of 1993, as well as one of the last movies to play so long that second run theaters actually made a sizable impact. The film would earn $357 million domestic, which was still “only” a 7.14x multiplier. The Lost World would earn $229 million despite opening with $74 million over the Fri-Sun portion of its $92 million Fri-Mon Memorial Day weekend 1997. The Lion King would leg out to $312 million from a $41 million domestic debut in June of 1994.

By 2001, movies like The Mummy Returns, Planet of the Apes and Rush Hour 2 were snagging $66-$69 million opening weekends. There were and still are leggy wide release blockbusters. But the vast majority of them then and now were either Thanksgiving debuts, Christmas openers or summer event flicks that proved popular enough snag Best Picture nominations. Think Forrest Gump ($329 million from a $32 million Wed-Sun debut in 1994), Saving Private Ryan ($217 million in 1998 from a $30.5 million debut) and The Sixth Sense ($293.5 million/$27 million in 1999). Most of the leggier $200 million-plus summer releases (Terminator 2, Men in Black, Armageddon, Phantom Menace, Pirates of the Caribbean, Shrek 2, Batman Begins, etc.) had some of the upfront Fri-Sun demand mitigated by a Wednesday debut.

What was a decently leggy run for Twister in 1996 ($242 million from a $41 million launch) was a near-miracle as quickly as Shrek ($263 million/$42 million) in 2001. In 2002, Spider-Man was “leggy” when it earned $403 million from a $114 million debut. Wonder Woman was a miracle when it legged out to $412.5 million in the summer of 2017 from a $103.5 million opening weekend. Chris Nolan’s Inception was exceptionally leggy when it earned $292 million from a $62 million domestic in July of 2010. The LEGO Movie was leggy by virtue of earning $258 million from a $69 million early 2014 debut. As opening weekends increased, and as studios piled more “event movies” almost on top of each other, legs became comparatively small and relatively rare.

In 1992, Batman Returns was a catastrophe, one that resulted in Tim Burton being replaced by Joel Schumacher for Batman Forever, because it ended with $162 million from a then-record $47 million launch. By 2005, Batman Begins was a leggy wonder because it legged to $205 million domestic from a $72 million Wed-Sun debut. Since, at best the late 1990’s, the vast majority of genuinely leggy blockbusters have been year-end releases. Think, offhand, Titanic, Avatar, Lord of the Rings, Night at the Museum, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman ($184 million from a $13.5 million Wed-Sun debut). What about summer biggies? Well, save for a few exceptions between 2001 and 2009, you’re not getting to $200 million without a $50 million domestic Fri-Sun debut.

The summer releases since the year 2000 that earned over $200 million from a domestic Fri-Sun non-holiday opening weekend below $50 million are Shrek in 2001, My Big Fat Greek Wedding ($242 million from a slow-rolling run that began with $597,362 debut in 108 theaters) in 2002, The Wedding Crashers ($209 million/$32 million) in 2005, The Hangover ($277 million/$45 million in 2009) and… uh… that’s it. Unless I missed one, save for the Wed-Sun debuts of Pirates 1 ($46 million Fri-Sun/$73 million Wed-Sun) and Batman Begins ($48 million/$72 million), every other single $200 million-plus summer grosser has, at least since The Sixth Sense in 1999, has opened between $52 million (Superman Returns, during its $108 million Wed-Tues Independence Day debut in 2006) and $357 million (Avengers: Endgame).

Unless the social distancing causes these films to play like old-school 1980s-to-1990’s blockbusters, the three late-summer tentpoles are still are going to need large opening weekends to top even $200 million. Yes, they might either pull in good-to-great tentpole level debuts and/or snag decent legs by virtue of being the only biggies in town prior to Black Widow on November 6. If Tenet opens with Mission: Impossible numbers ($55-$63 million) and legs out accordingly, and if Wonder Woman 1984 still opens with $95-$105 million with decent legs, then super-duper. If Mulan opens to Cinderella/Maleficent numbers ($65-$70 million) and legs out, then terrific. But the notion that they can open to $30-$40 million and then leg out to infinity and beyond, well, it’s not remotely to be expected.