https://th.thgim.com/elections/delhi-assembly/obqel4/article30807743.ece/alternates/FREE_730/THAVDGOPALRAI — AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal addresses supporters along with family members and leaders after party's victory in the Delhi Assembly polls, at AAP office in New Delhi, Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2020. | Photo Credit: PTI

Data | How many times did incumbents retain power in Assembly elections since 2014?

A look at the outcomes of 33 Assembly elections since the BJP's win in the 2014 Lok Sabha election reveals a significant anti-incumbency trend

14 Feb 2020, 14:12 by Sumant Sen

The Aam Aadmi Party returned to power in Delhi winning 88% of the seats and over 53% of the total votes. Since 1972, no other party has received such a strong mandate in a Delhi Assembly re-election.

Since the BJP’s win in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, there have been only 6 out of 33 State elections in which a non-BJP incumbent has returned to power.

AAP stands out

Table shows the contested seat share, contested vote share and total vote share of the winners and runners up in the 10 Assembly elections held in Delhi since 1972.

image/svg+xmlWinnerRunner-upDelhiAssemblyelectionsPartyContestedPartyContested1972INC84.6252.54BJS8.9338.471977JNP82.1452.58INC19.2339.051983INC60.7147.5BJP3843.171993BJP7042.82INC2034.481998INC74.2947.76BJP22.3935.822003INC67.1448.13BJP28.5735.222008INC61.4340.31BJP33.3336.842013AAP4029.64BJP45.5934.122015AAP95.7154.59BJP4.3532.782020AAP88.5753.57BJP11.9440.57SeatshareVoteshareSeatshareVoteshare

The two times when the Congress returned to power, its seat shares were over 60%. However, in the two instances when the AAP retained power, it won the highest number of seats since 1972 (67 and 62 seats, respectively).

Tough opposition

The table below looks at outcomes for 33 Assembly elections since 2014.

image/svg+xmlNo. of States that went to polls33Ruling party came back to power7Ruling party did not come back22Ruling party came back to powerin a coalition4

Of the 22 instances where the incumbents did not retain power, the BJP wrested control of the State in 13 instances. This suggests incumbent parties found it tough to overcome the BJP when it was in opposition. Of the 7 instances when the ruling party came back to power without a coalition, one (Gujarat) involved the BJP’s return.

Exceptions

Apart from the AAP in ‘15 & ‘20, the BJD in Odisha, the TMC in West Bengal, the TRS in Telangana and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu have successfully fought anti-incumbency in polls since 2014. In Telangana & T.N., the BJP is a weak force.

The table below compares the contested vote share (CVS) and the contested seat share (CSS) of the four regional parties and BJP across eight different elections.

image/svg+xmlElectionPartyCVS (%)CSS (%)ElectionPartyCVS (%)CSS (%)Tamil Nadu 2011AIADMK54.0690.91Odisha 2014BJD43.4179.59BJP2.550BJP18.026.8Tamil Nadu 2016AIADMK41.0657.69Odisha 2019BJD44.7176.71BJP3.570BJP32.4915.75Telangana 2014TRS34.311.11West Bengal 2011AITC50.1581.4BJP19.352.94BJP4.140Telangana 2018TRS47.0973.95West Bengal 2016AITC45.1872.01BJP7.130.85BJP10.281.03