Applying the poisson distribution to soccer betting


There is simply no denying that sports betting is reaching an all-time, especially in the States. Sports betting is an activity that has been legal in a number of countries for years now, but the legality is finally starting to make its way to the states. Just like the game of soccer did. If you are like most people, you can probably remember when soccer was only talked about in the States on a minimal level. This is certainly no longer the case. There are now even some American high schools that have adopted their own official soccer teams. Simply put, exciting things could be on the horizon for soccer betters. This is, of course, if they know how to take advantage of the right betting strategies.

What Exactly Is This Betting Strategy

You can look up betting strategies in today's time and there is no doubt that you will be flooded with tons of them. Some of them might even promise to bring you big riches overnight. What you really need to know is that there is no one proven strategy that is going to work in all situations. And, the Poisson Distribution strategy is certainly no different. That being said, this is simply just a strategy that was developed by a 19th-century mathematician by the name of Simeon Denis Poisson. The strategy is more like probability theory, as it just involves using the averages of historical game results to determine the likely outcome of a range of potential scores in future sporting events.

How This Strategy Works

If you are betting on soccer with quality sites like agen bola, the Poisson strategy would involve determining the final score of the game by calculating the attack strength and defense strength of the two opposing teams. For instance, if you go back to the 2017-2018 English Premier League season and compare Arsenal FC against Chelsea FC, you will obviously see that the two teams scored and defended a number of different goals on the road as they did at home. In 19 matches at home the Arsenal team score 54 goals, while allowing 20 goals to be scored on them. In 19 matches on the road, the Chelsea team score 32 goals and allowed 22 goals to be scored.

Using The Attacking And Defense Strengths Of Each Time

These are not the only numbers that you will need to know in order to apply this strategy. Earlier you learned that the strategy simply involved trying to determine the final score of a game by calculating the attack strength and defense strength. In order to calculate the attack strength, you will need to know the ratio of the team's average goals scores as well as the league's average number of goals scored. In this scenario, it would 2.842 divided by 1.532, which gives you 1.855. The Chelsea attack strength would be 1.684 divided by 1.147, which comes to a total of 1.468.

The defense strength is calculated by comparing the number of goals the team allowed to be scored on them against the average number of goals the league allowed to be scored. For instance, Arsenal defense strength would be calculated by diving 1.053 by 1.147. Chelsea would be 1.158 divided by 1.532. This means that the Arsenal team has a defensive strength of 0.918, while the Chelsea team has a defense strength of 0.756. You can clearly see that the Arsenal team is better at attacking, while both teams are on a pretty even playing field when it comes to defense.