Dale Tempest: Latest football betting insight from our columnist includes Watford booking and Sheff Utd to draw

Dale Tempest sees real value in backing booking points in Watford's game with Everton given how Nigel Pearson's side operate.

Sometimes you look at prices and just scratch your head. I went to the QPR v Leeds game two weeks ago and Rangers were very lucky to take the points.

Leeds missed a penalty, had 17 shots and missed three big chances whilst QPR’s goal was an obvious handball missed by the officials. Eze and Samuel are wonderful young talents and they were excellent but take those two out of the side and they have very little threat. Mark Warburton's side sit 14th in the EFL Championship but when you split home and away form we get some unusual numbers.

QPR have the 13th best home form taking 22pts with a 6-4-5 record, but look at Bristol city away. The Robins sit sixth in the league but more importantly have the fourth-best away record with a fantastic 7-4-4 tally away from Ashton Gate winning 25pts.

They set up with a very physical 4-1-4-1 system with Diedhiou one of the most powerful strikers in the league leading the line. Top scorer Weimann works off him. Lee Johnson’s side lost five out of six games over Christmas but have now won their last three and not conceded a goal since they moved to the 4-1-4-1 set-up beating Barnsley, Reading and Wigan to nil.

Dale's best bets

• 2pt 'double chance' singles - Bristol C v QPR & N. Forest v Birmingham
• 1 pt 'double chance' double on Bristol C v QPR & N. Forest v Birmingham
• 1pt Watford v Everton 40+ booking points
• 1pt Crystal Palace v Sheffield United draw

QPR are strong favourites simply due to their 11th in the Expected Goals (XG) table with Bristol City 16th. Whilst you have to consider the XG numbers I don’t believe you can blindly ignore a team's ability to win football matches.

Certain teams have players suited to playing in a particular style and that can suit home or away formations. Bristol city have the players to soak up pressure and punish impatient home sides and at the prices they should be backed on the handicap or double chance markets.

Another market anomaly in the EFL championship this week is Nottingham Forest at Birmingham. The Blues are 21st in the League home form table and have failed to win any of the last seven at home, losing five. Nottingham Forest not only sit third in the league but also third in the away table with a fantastic 7-6-2 record. And, yes you guessed it, Birmingham are favourites. In the Expected Goals tables they sit 18th and 19th hence the prices. I’m all over Forest.

Watford are one of my favourite teams to bet on but they missed Ismaila Sarr at Villa and if he isn’t fit I won’t be playing the home win, but either way I will definitely be with the bookings points. Watford will be highly aggressive against Everton, in fact they actually have only one way to play and that’s in your face. Craig Pawson doesn’t mind handing out the yellows so expect fireworks.

My final selection this week is Crystal Palace v Sheffield United to draw. The Blades have been brilliant this season and with a 3-7-2 away record you can see where I’m going. They simply don’t lose away whilst Palace have drawn six of the last nine games - at around 9/4 it has to be the play.