Expert picks: Holy Bull Stakes 2020 predictions, longshots
by HRN Staff
Tiz the Law's the one to beat in Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, but there's little consensus on a winner here. We polled Horse Racing Nation contributors on who they're playing in the Kentucky Derby prep along with their longshots of choice in the field of seven.
Ahead of post time at 5:04 p.m. ET, see the predictions below, and in drawing your own conclusions, check out free past performances.
MORE PICKS: Withers Stakes plays and Robert B. Lewis analysis
Winner: #6 Relentless Dancer
On the board: #3 Tiz the Law, #1 Toledo
Longshot I like: #7 Mayberry Deputy
Analysis: Relentless Dancer goes from the tight turns at Delta Downs to the short stretch of Gulfstream Park. Although this is a big jump in class, his last two wins have come by a combined 19 3/4 lengths, both on dirt after transferring from turf. He worked a sharp half mile on Monday entering this spot and has early speed with Jose Ortiz aboard. If he gets in front and sets moderate fractions, he can upset. Tiz the Law is the class of the field, already a Grade 1 winner and coming in off sharp works. He had a troubled trip at Churchill over a sloppy track last time out but appears to have bounced out of it well. He'll try to stalk and pounce. Toledo got no pace to chase and came up short in his last local start. That should change this time with some speedsters in here. With the rail trip, he can save ground and come up the inside. Mayberry Deputy was a sharp maiden winner over the Gulfstream surface last month. He came through moderate fractions and won going away. The short stretch may hurt this closer a bit, though trainer Kenny McPeek scored with 25-1 longshot Harvey Wallbanger in the Holy Bull a year ago.
Winner: #3 Tiz the Law
On the board: #4 Ete Indien, #1 Toledo
Longshot I like: #6 Relentless Dancer
Analysis: Tiz the Law suffered his first defeat in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) last race, losing by less than a length. Prior to that, he was extremely impressive in two winning efforts in New York. He’s obviously the class of the field and has prepared well for his return. Ete Indian won his debut sprinting on turf, and in his most recent race, an allowance dirt score on this track, he recorded the highest Brisnet Speed Rating of this group. That was his first start in over two months, so further improvement can be expected. Toledo continues to show progress and recorded a career-best figure in that matchup with Ete Indien. Top-notch trainer/jockey connections are extra-added attractions.
Winner: #2 Uncork the Bottle
On the board: #3 Tiz the Law, #1 Toledo
Longshot I like: #2 Uncork the Bottle
Analysis: Saffie Joseph Jr. is a trainer on the rise at the highest level, and he brings an unbeaten colt here to try the Derby trail. Uncork The Bottle steps up in class, but he seems to be improving and is coming in off a win on turf. If his odds are anywhere near 12-1 at post time, he's worth a play.
Winner: #1 Toledo
On the board: #3 Tiz the Law, #4 Ete Indien
Longshot I like: #7 Mayberry Deputy
Analysis: Toledo's races have been spaced well with 42, 41 and 43 days between races. He's improved each time. With each additional furlong, he will get better and better. He can save ground due to his draw, so he's less likely to give up lengths as he has in his first three races. Tiz the Law will be tough to beat, but I'll try to do it with Toledo. This is my early choice for the Belmont Stakes. Ete Indien is logical. My longshot pick of Mayberry Deputy is also on the improve and finished second to Oaklawn's Smarty Jones winner Gold Street two back.
Winner: #1 Toledo
On the board: #3 Tiz the Law, #6 Relentless Dancer
Longshot I like: #7 Mayberry Deputy
Analysis: Toledo is interesting for Chad Brown. He owns ascending numbers and had an uncomfortable trip in a clear place finish last time. He should love two turns and figures to save ground stalking the pace under Irad Ortiz Jr. Tiz the Law cruised in his first two starts including the Champagne, and did not have the best trip in a close third in the slop in the Kentucky Jockey Club last time. Relentless Dancer dusted his rivals in both dirt outings. He should show speed under his new rider, Jose Ortiz. Mayberry Deputy is on the upswing for Kenny McPeek.
Wagers: #1 to win; exacta 1/3-6-7; exacta 1-6-7/3
Winner: #3 Tiz the Law
On the board: #4 Ete Indien, #1 Toledo
Longshot I like: #6 Relentless Dancer
Analysis: Tiz the Law's greenness and traffic problems affected him in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but he did previously win the Champagne Stakes on talent alone and has had two months to refine his approach. For those searching for value underneath, Relentless Dancer may go forgotten off his Louisiana-bred stakes victory at Delta Downs.
Wagers: exacta 3-6
Winner: #4 Ete Indien
On the board: #3 Tiz the Law, #1 Toledo
Longshot I like: #6 Relentless Dancer
Analysis: Ete Indien has a real shot to step up here. He beat Toledo in his last race at Gulfstream despite some greenness, not switching leads. He’s training sharp and putting it all together. I love his breeding being out of a Mizzen Mast mare. Tiz the Law certainly looms large, and he too has been training excellent and is primed for a big effort. With Toledo, he seems to do well over the track. Relentless Dancer should not be forgotten off an easy stakes win.
Playing the horses can be a rewarding but tough game. Exacta, trifectas, superfectas, Pick 4s, Pick 5s -- there are so many wagers to play, it can get overly confusing.
How do you know how much to play or which wagers to try?Unfortunately, part of the learning process can include losing money. But we would like to help you shortcut that process by learning some of the most common mistakes that horseplayers make on a daily basis. Take a look at Horse Racing Nation’s newest eBook -- “Top 10 Mistakes Horseplayers Make” -- and see if it helps you avoid some common mistakes and win more playing the races!