Weekend Plays: Monday Morning QB can get the Withers distance

On the Kentucky Derby trail, it is important for bettors to not get caught up in playing back horses who won for them before,unless it makes sense from an unbiased standpoint. In this case, Shotski makes his return on Saturday in the Grade 3, $250,000 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. But the Remsen Stakes (G2) winner is listed at 2-1 on the morning line, which is a bit too low for my liking.

The race is competitive, and Monday Morning QB is one improving colt with the right long-distance pedigree to give Shotski a serious challenge.

He leads off five top Saturday picks across races at Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Santa Anita.

Aqueduct Race 8: Withers Stakes (G3)

Monday Morning QB won the seven-furlong Heft Stakes at Laurel Park by ¾ of a length over New Commission, earning a high 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. For comparison, Shotski earned a 113 in his Remsen victory in December.

With that said, there are some new obstacles for Monday Morning QB in the Withers aside from his opponents. For one, he will need to stretch out from seven to nine furlongs. Stepping up to a graded stakes race is not easy, either, no matter what the speed figures say.

To counteract the first point, though, Monday Morning OB owns a nice pedigree for stretching out, both in his immediate family and generations back. Sire Imagining ran as a marathon turf router and won the 2014 Manhattan Stakes (G1) as his career highlight, while the first dam How My Heart Works is a daughter of Formalities Aside, a half-sister to 2009 Dubai World Cup winner Well Armed.

One negative about Monday Morning QB is that he failed to switch leads in the Heft. But he switched leads two races ago without problem. These horses are young and still learning.

With Shotski the likely favorite, taking a shot on an up-and-comer such as Monday Morning QB is worth it. Bet him at 3-1 or higher.

Gulfstream Race 6: Forward Gal Stakes (G3)

According to TimeformUS, the class of the Forward Gal is rated at 92, while its counterpart, the Swale Stakes (G3), is a 108.

Given the weakness of the field, it's a good spot to bet a longshot. One interesting option is Nikki and Papa, who makes her career debut.

Obviously, Nikki and Papa lacks any experience. But why would the connections enter her in a Grade 3 with a prior start unless they saw something in the morning workouts? Maidens don't often debut in graded stakes races without talent.

For what it is worth, Nikki and Papa's two most workouts are available on XBTV.com. In the Jan. 26 drill, she easily handled her workmate, Zuzanna, an older turf mare who won the Red Carpet Handicap (G3) at Del Mar.

Also, Nikki and Papa cost $500,000 at auction last year after only selling for $70k as a yearling. The connections clearly saw something great.

Nikki and Papa is cross-entered in a Sunday maiden race. But if she starts in the Forward Gal, give her consideration. If Nikki and Papa passes, then Street of Dreams is the choice.

Street of Dreams broke her maiden on Nov. 30 at Churchill Downs over a sloppy track with a 93 on TimeformUS, which matches the figure of the favorite Tonalist's Shape in her nine-length local Hut Hut Stakes win.

Gulfstream Race 7: Maiden
Based on his lone running line, Alfatei did not make a dent in his career debut when he faded 14 lengths behind the winner Violent City. But after watching the replay, he made a mild move on the turn along with Palm Springs.

Alfatei failed to accelerate in the stretch as he finished evenly. Some long-winded runners cannot keep up with a sprint pace, which gives the illusion they do not own talent. In this spot, he gets to stretch out to a one-turn mile.

Furthermore, this maiden race doesn't look particularly deep. Palm Springs returns in this spot as the 4/5 morning line favorite despite losing by four lengths with a 75 on TimeformUS. On that scale at this level, 75 is a weak figure.

Alfatei gets one more chance to prove himself, and 8-1 is a fair price.

Gulfstream Race 9: Swale Stakes
To make this simple, Untitled owns the highest TimeformUS Speed Figure at 116 from his career debut. The 116 is adjusted down from a 123.

Watching the race is worth the time as well. Untitled switched leads in the lane and traveled in a straight line, which are two major positives.

Can he duplicate the performance after switching to the Mark Casse barn and stretching out to seven furlongs? Those are two big questions.

With Green Light Go's presence, most of the money will go to him. Given Untitled owns the high figure and speed, he is fair odds at 3-1.

Santa Anita Race 8: San Pasqual Stakes (G2)
Despite running second in the San Antonio Stakes (G2) to Gift Box, King Abner is only the second choice in this race at 4-1, while Midcourt is the favorite at 3-1. Midcourt disappointed bettors in the San Antonio by finishing a distant third by 7 ½ lengths.

The question for King Abner is the nine-furlong distance. Before the San Antonio, King Abner competed at one mile or less for 22 races.

Pedigree aces will notice Exclusive Rosette in King Abner's dam line. Exclusive Rosette is the second dam of American Pharoah, the 2015 Triple Crown champion who handled the marathon 12-furlong Belmont Stakes distance fine.

King Abner also owns the high last-race TimeformUS figure at 123. If he remains the second choice or higher in betting, he is the right play.