Economic Survey 2020: CEA Subramanian sees fiscal slippage in FY20

Subramanian said the country might have hit the trough in growth and expressed his confidence in achieving 6-6.5 per cent growth in fiscal year 2020-21

The Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian on Friday said that there might be a slippage in the fiscal deficit given the revenue situation. Addressing the media after presenting the Economic Survey 2019-2020 in the Parliament, the CEA said that the country might have hit the trough in growth and expressed his confidence in achieving 6-6.5 per cent growth in fiscal year 2020-21. Here are some of responses to questions asked in the press conference:

On timeline for achieving $5 trillion economy

The timeline to achieve the target remains the same, that is, financial year 2024-25.

On efforts to boost consumption

We had discussed this in last year's Economic Survey and alluded to it this year also. We talked about the virtuous cycle, which goes from investment to growth and growth puts demand in the hands of people. There has been slowdown in the consumption as well, which we have discussed in the Economic Survey.

On NPA situation

In the Survey, we have tried to address the larger questions. Our banking sector compared to the size of our economy -which is the fifth largest - is very small. We have given ideas in the report for increasing the size of the banking sector.

On the chances of achieving 6-6.5% growth next fiscal

There are some early signals. If you look at the business cycle in India (the peak and the trough) with respect to the developments globally, it seems we have hit the trough in growth.

On Thalinomics and food subsidy

Food subsidy is a bigger issue. What we have done is a small initiative to show that how much a veg or a non-veg thali costs in different states across India. It's kind of a reference point for the middle class to see if the cost of living has increased or moderated over the last five-six years.

We can attribute food subsidy for moderation in prices of Thali, but there are other factors as well in bringing down the cost of a Thali.

On strategies to increase exports

We have to focus on labour intensive sectors. By integrating "Assemble in India for the world" into Make in India, India can create 4 crore well-paid jobs by 2025 and 8 crore by 2030.

We have also shown the delay due to logistical process in exporting goods. We have charted every step taken to send a consignment from say Mirzapur to the US, and based on these observations, we have given suggestions to improve the flow of goods for exports.

State of government finances

We have acknowledged the fact that the fiscal deficit situation of the past nine months is not very different from the last year, but given the revenue situation, there might be some slippages. We have also said that given the current situation, there is a need to give some impetus to growth.

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