Gormley: Saskatchewan 2020 election will have some significant firsts

This election will be Mr. Moe’s first ask of voters to endorse him and the party under his leadership.

There’s an old saying in politics that a weekend can be an eternity, meaning that game-changing variables can move dramatically and quickly. The corollary is that making predictions months before an election is a mug’s game.

Saskatchewan voters will cast ballots at the end of October and it will be a significant election for a few reasons. First, the Saskatchewan Party faces its fourth election as government and, besides the once natural governing party CCF-NDP, which had a lock on the province from 1944 until the early 2000s, the last non-NDP government to govern this long was the founding Liberal government in 1905 that held power for more than two decades.

Second, for Premier Scott Moe it will be his first public accountability session. Although premier since early 2018, it was by virtue of winning the leadership of the governing SaskParty, not a decision made by the general electorate. After three successful campaigns with the popular Brad Wall at the helm, this election will be Mr. Moe’s first ask of voters to endorse him and the party under his leadership.

Third, for the NDP — the one-time political powerhouse that had only five leaders during 44 years of governing — this fall’s election will see the party’s fourth leader in four elections. Once thought impossible for a political party that reveres its leaders and memorializes their names, the NDP has cycled through leaders as if hunting for a magic formula that eludes them.

The party’s latest leader, Dr. Ryan Meili, is a physician, social justice activist and relative newcomer to party politics. Although a dedicated campaigner for a variety of causes — he was even locked up while protesting at the Quebec City Summit of the Americas as a medical student — Meili’s challenge has been to build out his party beyond its base.

It is axiomatic in politics — right or left in Saskatchewan — that when a party is considered for the privilege of governing it must reach past its core supporters to moderates, unaffiliated voters and political “switchers” who take a leap of faith. Meili’s harder left-wing social activism and “smartest guy in the room” demeanour will leave him challenged.

A longtime political friend refers to two attributes that win elections: the opportunity for pleasant surprises and not being tempted by lost causes. Pleasant surprises are positions that attract voters beyond the party base. The temptation of lost causes is the tendency for a leader to either stay stuck campaigning to the base vote, which doesn’t grow support, or trying to move too far into issues and voters that will not yield results. It takes discipline and a good team to maintain a formula that wins.

A good example is Meili’s public support for Unifor members involved in the labour dispute at the Co-op Refinery in Regina. While the NDP is an official labour party, relying on union financial and volunteer support, rather than show up on the picket line early on and declare his support, Meili waited until the situation deteriorated into lawlessness, then stood in the crowd, nodding approvingly as out-of-province activists threatened an escalation in illegal activity, rule of law be damned.

As public support for Unifor and its Ontario leadership has plummeted, Meili’s appearance did nothing to expand his support beyond hardcore union activists, whose votes he already has.

For the Sask. Party and Premier Moe, a softer resource economy and a government in Ottawa committed to “transitioning” away many Saskatchewanians’ livelihoods, are a challenge. While his recently unveiled growth agenda sets out some workable paths forward, his reach will have to be broader than just campaigning against the Trudeau government.

As the economy has softened in some sectors, the premier’s steady, balanced and “Sask.-first” approach have earned him popularity ratings above 50 per cent, which are enviable for any leader, never mind one leading a party that has governed for more than a dozen years.

This will be the year that leaders get tested.

John Gormley is a broadcaster, lawyer, author and former Progressive Conservative MP whose radio talk show is heard weekdays from 8:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. on 650 CKOM Saskatoon and 980 CJME Regina.