National Statistical Office revises growth down to 6.1% for 2018-19

“Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2018-19 and 2017-18 stand at ₹139.81 lakh crore and ₹131.75 lakh crore, respectively.”

The National Statistics Office (NSO) on Friday released revised estimates for economic growth in the last three years, pegging actual GDP growth in 2018-19 at 6.1% instead of the 6.8% provisional estimates reported earlier in May 2019.

The NSO attributed the downward revision in the 2018-19 growth rate to a reduction in numbers from the primary sector (representing farm- and mining-related activity) and secondary sector (manufacturing, utilities and construction).

“Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2018-19 and 2017-18 stand at ₹139.81 lakh crore and ₹131.75 lakh crore, respectively, showing growth of 6.1% during 2018-19 and 7% during 2017-18,” the NSO said in a statement. As per the first revision for 2017-18 growth numbers released last January, real GDP had grown at 7.2%.

In terms of gross value-added (GVA), the economy grew at 6% in 2018-19 as opposed to 6.6% estimated earlier, with primary sector GVA growth pared from 2.7% estimated earlier to 1%. 

Manufacturing growth slipping from the 7.5% estimated last May, to 6%. By contrast, services sector GVA growth was revised upward from 7.5% to 7.7% for the same year. 

The NSO, under the Statistics and Programme Implementation Ministry, releases revised estimates of national income, consumption expenditure, saving and capital Formation, as more accurate data comes in over time. 

“The first Revised Estimates for the year 2018-19 have been compiled using industry-wise, institution-wise detailed information instead of using the benchmark-indicator method employed at the time of release of Provisional Estimates on May 31, 2019,” the Statistics office explained. 

“The growth in real GVA (gross value added) during 2018-19 has been lower than that in 2017-18 mainly due to relatively lower growth in ‘Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’, ‘Manufacturing’, ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’, ‘Financial Services, ‘Public Administration and Defence’ and ‘Other Services’,” it added.

The GDP growth rate for 2016-17, the year when demonetisation of high-value currency notes was undertaken, has been raised from 8.2% to 8.3%. The 8.2% growth was based on second revised estimates released last January, that itself represented a significant hike from the 7.1% growth estimated earlier for 2016-17. 

India’s per capita income, at current prices, is estimated as ₹1,15,293 and ₹1,26,521 respectively for the years 2017-18 and 2018-19, while per capita private final consumption expenditure at current prices is estimated at ₹76,794 and ₹84,808, for the two years, respectively.