Did Putin Just Reveal Plans for How Russia Would Run Without Him?
by Stratfor Worldview"Without Putin" is how young people in Russia today often describe a concept that is unfamiliar, and well they might: For most of their lives, they have known no other leader than Vladimir Putin. Yet all of Russia, not least President Putin himself, knows he cannot remain leader indefinitely. That's why Putin, who has led Russia in one form or another since the turn of the century, is now smoothing the way for his gradual exit — as well as for major changes in Russia's system of governance.
Putin has proposed constitutional changes that aim to establish a more institutional form of rule by balancing the powers of different branches of government against each other. In essence, Putin is attempting to secure his legacy by slowly shifting Russia's governance away from the personality-driven politics that have dominated the country since the collapse of the Soviet Union toward a more resilient, institutional base of governance. Putin's best-laid plans, however, won't be without their challenges: Factionalism within the ruling elite and electoral pressure from opposition parties could eventually upset United Russia's dominant position in parliament, leading to greater political discord or — in the most extreme case regime change, in essence, if opposition parties gain control of parliament.