Super Bowl LIV

Super Bowl predictions: Guardian writers' picks for 49ers v Chiefs in Miami

Will Jimmy Garoppolo lead the 49ers to the team’s sixth Super Bowl title or will Patrick Mahomes lift the Chiefs to their first since 1970? Our writers hash it out

What the Chiefs need to do to win…

Get Patrick Mahomes to release the ball quickly. The Chiefs are famed for their downfield attack, with Mahomes bobbing and weaving in the pocket before launching a strike downfield. They will have to be selective with that against the Niners, though. San Francisco’s defensive front is too fearsome for Mahomes to take time in the pocket. OC

Slow down San Francisco’s ferocious pass rush. The heart of the Niners’ defensive resurgence is a tricked-out line featuring a quartet of first-round draft picks: ends Nick Bosa (nine sacks this year) and Dee Ford (six and a half), and tackles DeForest Buckner (10) and Arik Armstead (seven and a half). Keeping Mahomes clean in the pocket so he can make ample use of his receivers will be critical, so don’t be surprised if Andy Reid relies on short, quick passes, especially in the early stages. BAG

Let Patrick Mahomes be Patrick Mahomes. Don’t let Andy Reid become Playoffs Andy Reid. Only five head coaches have ever won more NFL games, and each of those has at least two championships to their name. Reid has zero, and poor clock management has played a part in several of his 14 postseason defeats. He and his staff have done a fine job this time around – responding calmly to a catastrophic start against Houston and shutting down Tennessee’s running game – but none of that will be remembered if they blow it on Sunday. NB

What the 49ers need to do to win...

Shorten the game. This has the potential to be a high-scoring track meet. In that scenario, the Chiefs have the upper hand. The 49ers’ best chance is to have long, sustained drives, taking time off the clock and disrupting the Chiefs’ rhythm on offense. In that world, a couple of stops on defense would be enough. OC

Contain the Chiefs’ Legion of Zoom. The trio of Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins have each been clocked at at least 21.3mph on plays this season according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, making Kansas City’s wideout corps the fastest in the league. Slowing the Legion of Zoom will start with the San Francisco pass rush, but ultimately fall on slot corner extraordinaire K’Waun Williams, who’s expected to cover Hill, with cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Emmanuel Moseley assigned to Hardman and Watkins. BAG

The cheap answer here is ‘Stop Mahomes’, but – even for a defense as brilliant as San Francisco’s – that’s not realistic. The Chiefs’ quarterback will have his moments, but the 49ers must at least limit those by dominating the line on both sides of the ball: establishing the run to keep him off the field, and then trapping him in the pocket on defense. He will make plays from there, too, but the 49ers’ few defensive let-downs this season almost all came against mobile quarterbacks who found ways to make space. Mahomes has rushed for 53 yards in both of the Chiefs’ playoff games so far. NB

Key player for Chiefs…

Daniel Sorensen. The little-discussed safety-linebacker hybrid will be the bellwether for whether or not the Chiefs can slow down the 49ers’ offense. Sorensen can thump against the run and is typically good enough in coverage to allow the Chiefs to have three safeties on the field at pretty much all times, an advantage against good passing teams. George Kittle is a different beast, though. We will know early on whether Sorensen can match-up against Kittle and whether he has a shot at covering him. If not, the Chiefs will have a hard stopping San Francisco’s offense. OC

Tyrann Mathieu. The safety known as Honey Badger was a desperately needed offseason addition to a Kansas City team that ranked second to last in total defense and passing yards allowed in 2018. As the quarterback of the defense, Mathieu will be asked to identify formations and make calls and checks against what may be the NFL’s most flexible offense, while his ability to line up at deep safety, drop into coverage as a slot corner or offer run support at the line will be key. BAG

The only answer here is Mahomes. In a down year, with two games lost to injury and more games hindered by it, the 2018 MVP still threw for 4,031 yards, 26 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He is, by virtue of his talent and position, the player with the greatest capacity to influence the outcome of this game. Frankly, it’s not close. NB

Key player for 49ers…

Jimmy Garoppolo. The quarterback cannot turn the ball over. Give Andy Reid and the Chiefs offense extra possessions and they will score. A single turnover could be the decider. OC

Raheem Mostert. The undrafted 27-year-old was cut by the Eagles, Dolphins, Ravens, Browns and Bears before finding a home in San Francisco’s running back by committee. But he can expect to play a feature role on Sunday after exploding for 220 yards and four touchdowns in the NFC championship game. Getting him going will go a long way toward keeping Kansas City’s high-octane offense on the sidelines while making life easier for Jimmy Garoppolo, whose hairiest outings have come when he’s been asked to shoulder too much of the offensive load. BAG

George Kittle. San Francisco’s defense can win the day, but only as a collective. Mostert was sensational in the NFC title game, and the 49ers’ ability to run the ball will be critical, but Kyle Shanahan’s schemes are still the first key to his success. Kittle is a player who makes so many of those schemes possible: San Francisco’s best receiver and also one of the finest blocking tight ends in the league. His versatility is essential. NB

One bold prediction…

The game ends on a safety. This has the potential to be a one-score classic because both teams are so evenly matched – one with a dominant offense, the other a dominant defense. I’ll say it comes down to the final drive. Whoever has the ball is either forced into a safety or takes a tactical one to bleed the clock. OC

The Chiefs will try an onside kick on their first kickoff. Andy Reid once opened a season with an onside kick (and watched the same gambit backfire spectacularly a few years later), so there’s a track record here that San Francisco should be aware of. But the Kansas City coach believes in his offense and is typically at his best when he skews aggressive, so don’t be surprised if he tries to catch the 49ers off guard before they have gotten their legs under them, whether it’s to start the game or after their first score. BAG

That the food at Hard Rock Stadium will not smell as good as the burgers cooking outside Arrowhead Stadium at 4.30am on gamedays. NB

The final score will be ...

49ers 28-35 Chiefs. If anybody could slow down a healthy Patrick Mahomes, it would be this Niners defense. But I don’t think anybody can. The Chiefs edge an instant classic. OC

49ers 24-37 Chiefs. Consider that Mahomes has never had a bad game as a professional. I mean take a look. He’s won 27 of his 35 career starts and put up 40, 51, 28, 31, 31, 13, 24 and 32 points in the losses. San Francisco have been the class of the NFC from Week 1 and will keep within touching distance until the fourth quarter, but the most dynamic player on the field will make the throws in winning time to deliver Kansas City their first Super Bowl title in 50 years. BAG

49ers 33-31 Chiefs. Mahomes is too special to go quietly, but so many other matchups favor the Niners. They are stronger on both lines, better at running the ball and far deeper in the secondary. To beat Kansas City, though, San Francisco will need a strong showing from their own quarterback. Garoppolo has demonstrated several times already this season – most notably the Week 14 win over New Orleans – that he can offer more when needed. NB