Shivajinagar bypoll outcome: Consolidation of Muslim votes helped Congress

The margin was over 13,000 votes

Congress candidate Rizwan Arshad’s victory in Shivajinagar with a margin of 13,521 votes, observers say, indicates that minority vote consolidation played a major role contrary to the belief that there could be a split in Muslim votes, especially after the defection of his predecessor R. Roshan Baig and the confusion caused by the IMA scam in which several politicians were allegedly involved.

Mr Baig, who was one among the 17 MLAs who were disqualified, was not inducted into the BJP. The BJP fielded former councillor M. Saravana and it was said that Mr. Baig and his followers indirectly worked for the BJP candidate. Sources said Mr. Saravana’s victory would have helped Mr. Baig earn some brownie points with the BJP, but this has not happened.

The JD(S) had fielded Tanveer Ahmed Ullah while the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) fielded Abdul Hannan. Apart from these two, eight other Muslims contested as independents.

“This was a conspiracy by the BJP to divide Muslim votes. But people in my constituency have realised that the BJP is playing a game. Not just Muslims, but people from all communities voted for me. This is not Muslim vote consolidation, but a decisive mandate,” Mr. Arshad told The Hindu.

According to insiders, Muslims decided to go with the Congress, especially after the Ayodhya verdict.

“Also, the low voter turnout in constituencies where the BJP had a hold clearly indicates the apathy of traditional BJP voters. Moreover, the SDPI worked hard to bring Muslims out to vote. Their party workers had collected the mobile numbers of all Muslims voters and repeatedly called them on the polling day to come out and vote. However, the community voted for the Congress and not SDPI, which got only 3,141 votes,” sources said.