Defectors transferred votes to BJP in a big way

Through the campaign for bypolls in Karnataka, strategists kept their fingers crossed over transfer of votes. For, in several constituencies, there had to be significant transfer of votes in favour of the disqualified legislators who were contesting on BJP ticket this time.

Monday’s results saw BJP’s vote share recording a significant jump in several constituencies, especially in the Vokkaliga-dominated constituencies in the Old Mysore region where it had a weak base. While the vote is being seen as mandate for stability, legislators have also shown that their voter base has remained intact even when they have changed parties. The big loser in the vote share transfer seems to be the Congress.

The biggest jump

For example, in Chickballapur where two-time legislator K. Sudhakar was re-elected, the BJP had a vote share of just 3.52% in the 2018 election. It jumped by a whopping 45 percentage points.

In K.R. Pet where BJP had polled just 5.69% of the total votes in 2018, K.C. Narayan Gowda polled 39.41% this byelections, recording a jump by almost 35 percentage points and also signifying the entry of the BJP in Mandya. Similarly, in the victory of S.T. Somashekar in Yeshwantpur, the BJP saw its vote share increase by 30 percentage points to poll 50.86% over the 2018 elections. In Mahalakshmi Layout, the party increased its vote share by 29 percentage points to poll 58.65% of the total votes polled.

However, in Hunsur, though the BJP gained about 26 percentage points, up from 2.38% polled in 2018, the former Janata Dal (Secular) State president A.H. Vishwanath contesting on BJP ticket lost.

At the end of counting of all votes, 50.32% of the total votes polled were to the BJP, while Congress polled 31.5% and JD(S) got 11.9% votes.

“Irrespective of who contested or whether it was an Assembly or a Lok Sabha election, the data of previous elections shows that the BJP had a weak presence in these constituencies. This meant that the disqualified legislators from Congress and Janata Dal (Secular), now contesting as BJP candidates, had to get a big swing to get elected,” said sources working for the BJP.

In the transfer of votes, Congress saw big losses in Old Mysore region. While it had polled 40.14% of the total votes when Mr. Somashekar was the candidate at Yeshwantpur, it managed just about 5.52% votes in the bypoll. In Chickballapur, the party’s vote share declined by 23 percentage points. Similarly, in K.R. Puram, the decline in vote share for Congress was by about 20 percentage points.

Across other constituencies — mostly in north Karnataka where Congress is in direct fight with BJP — the party lost the vote share ranging between 9 percentage points in Ranebennur to 16 percentage points in Kagwad. Solace for the party came from Hunsur where its candidate H.P. Manjunath polled nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2018 and in Shivajinagar where the vote share marginally improved by 2.5 percentage points.

Big jolt for JD(S)

For the JD(S), the big jolt came in Mahalakshmi Layout where it saw the vote share declining by 39 percentage points. In K.R. Pet, the other seat it lost, the party lost 17 percentage point votes while the Congress lost 16 percentage point votes — all of which have been transferred to the BJP’s K.C. Narayan Gowda. “In any bypoll, such swings give an edge to the ruling party. The Congress has to worry where its legislators left the party and also almost took the party base,” sources said.