Champions League permutations: What results Liverpool and Chelsea need to reach the last 16

Manchester City and Tottenham may have already sealed their place in the Champions League knockout round, but for many clubs a place in February’s round of 16 is still to play for. 

City are guaranteed top spot regardless of Wednesday night’s result against Dinamo Zagreb, while Jose Mourinho’s Spurs face a trip to Bayern Munich safe in the knowledge they can only finish second in the group behind the German side whatever happens on Wednesday.

Read more: What has gone wrong for Manchester City?

However, Liverpool and Chelsea’s fates are less certain, with both still facing the possibility of heading into the Europa League in the New Year. 

They are both involved in the only two groups where there are three teams who could all finish in either first or second place.

Reds’ task in Austria

A draw against Red Bull Salzburg will be enough for Liverpool to progress, but they will need a win to guarantee top spot with Napoli able to surpass them with victory over the winless Genk. 

It means Jurgen Klopp is likely to field his strongest side, although last week’s 5-2 blitz of Everton showcased the depth of his squad should he wish to rotate again ahead of the Reds’ hectic Christmas schedule. 

Simply put, it is in Liverpool’s hands. It is only if they lose that things begin to get complicated. 

Defeat would bring Salzburg level on 10 points with Liverpool, while Napoli could also finish the group stage on 10 points with a draw against Genk. They drew the reverse fixture 0-0.

In this unlikely scenario, the teams would have to be separated by Uefa’s tiebreak rules. It would see the team’s head-to-head record compared, essentially creating a mini-group of the three clubs disregarding results against Genk.

In this instance, Napoli would go through in first place, while Liverpool and Salzburg would be tied, resulting in their head-to-head record being compared. 

It would only get to this point if they had a win a piece and as such would come down to goal difference in the two games they played, with subsequent tiebreak criteria of goals scored and then away goals. 

If Napoli win and Salzburg beat Liverpool, the Italians would top the group and the tiebreak would skip straight to a comparison of the head-to-head record of Liverpool and Salzburg.

Blues’ tight group

The situation for Chelsea is a little clearer. The Blues are currently third in the group by way of a worse head-to-head record with Valencia, meaning they have to get something when they welcome Lille to Stamford Bridge tomorrow evening in order to progress. 

A win would guarantee they qualify for the knockout stages, bringing their total to 11 points, with one of Ajax or Valencia, if not both, guaranteed to drop points due to playing one another. 

Chelsea would only go through as group winners if those two draw, however, which would tie them with Ajax on points and put them first on a superior head-to-head record. An Ajax or Valencia win would see them remain behind the winners either on points or head-to-head respectively. 

Meanwhile, a draw would only be enough to send them through in second place should Valencia lose that match. If the Spanish side get anything in Amsterdam, then Chelsea would be out, meaning a win is the only way to ensure their progression

It means qualification still hangs in the balance for both the reigning Champions League and Europa League champions.

But should they both progress, it would be the third successive season that all English sides involved have reached the knockout rounds.

The permutations

Group A

1st: PSG

2nd: Real Madrid

Group B

1st: Bayern Munich

2nd: Tottenham

Group C

1st: Man City

2nd: Shakhtar Donetsk, Dinamo Zagreb, Atalanta

Group D

1st: Juventus

2nd: Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen

Group E

1st: Liverpool, Napoli, Salzburg

2nd: Liverpool, Napoli, Salzburg

Group F

1st: Barcelona 

2nd: Inter Milan, Borussia Dortmund

Group G

1st: RB Leipzig, Lyon

2nd: Zenit St Petersburg, Lyon, Leipzig

Group H

1st: Ajax, Valencia, Chelsea

2nd: Ajax, Valencia, Chelsea