Brexit civil war will not be over by Christmas

The trench fighting has only begun.

Otto English is the pen name used by Andrew Scott, a writer and playwright based in London.

In August 1914, Great Britain ruled over an empire the likes of which the world had never seen and one upon which the sun never set. A quarter of the earth’s population acknowledged George V as their king and Britain was the only true global superpower. If you messed with the British back then, you did so at your peril.

So when Europe erupted into war that summer and the British imperial army was mobilized to teach the upstart Kaiser Wilhelm a lesson, most people assumed the conflict would be short-lived. Britain and its allies would give the enemy a bloody nose, a few maps would be redrawn and everything would go on as before, as it always had.

Buoyed by jingoistic newspapers and patriotic fervor, volunteers descended on military recruitment offices, determined not to miss out on the fun. Cheering crowds waved the men off to war. It would “all be over by Christmas!” they said.

Only it wasn’t — nor was it for the three Christmases that followed. As the German offensive stalled, stalemate ensued and the youth of Europe set about butchering each other on the fields of Flanders and across the Continent. The consequences of the needless “Great War” ricocheted — like a rogue shell — down the course of the 20th century and into the 21st. Long, long after the Armistice of November 1918, the ramifications of that terrible conflict endured, permeating Europe’s political landscape.

Much the same, albeit on a more localized scale, will be true of the Brexit Civil War.

Of course, to make any comparison between the U.K.’s EU referendum and one of the bloodiest events in recent history is to risk inviting the ire of the keyboard warriors. But make no mistake about it — Brexit is a war. And this time Britain has declared it upon itself. Tweets, Facebook spats and that guy who shouts “Stop Brexit” outside parliament may have taken the place of bullets, exploding ordnance and yells of “charge,” but three years in, the battle lines have barely moved and mutual enmity infuses the struggle on all sides.

And contrary to current popular wisdom, this one won’t be decided by Christmas either — or for many Christmases to come.

* * *

Unless you have been living in the U.K. since 2016, it’s hard to fully grasp the scale of acrimony that now exists in the British Isles. The result of the EU referendum seeps into everything. Brexit has turned family members and friends against each other. It suffocates the news. The country has not been so divided since the days of Oliver Cromwell, and nobody is going to kiss and make up any time soon.

Three years on, this is now war for the sake of war. It has no more to do with membership of the EU than the carnage at the Somme had anything to do with the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. It is about winning, getting it over with, breaking the stalemate and humiliating the other side in a wretched peace accord.

So the notion that a decisive win by either Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party or the Labour Party in this month’s general election will sort out the mess is delusional. It’s too late for that. This is Britain’s Catch-22 election and every option leads to further chaos.

Say, for example, that a new U.K. government green-lights a second Brexit referendum. A win for Remain would leave Brexiteers feeling aggrieved. They would regroup and try again and quite possibly succeed again. Likewise, if the new government continues to push to leave, the growing ranks of the pro-EU movement will only continue to swell. Millions of dedicated Europhiles, energized since June 2016, will not simply roll up their blue and gold flags and stuff them in the bin — even if the country does end up quitting the Union.

Despite what the different sides may claim, most Britons haven’t budged an inch in their opinions since the start of the conflict. This is the very essence of trench warfare.

* * *

The trouble doesn’t start and end with ardent Leavers and Remainers shouting platitudes in the street, of course. The cold dead hand of Brexit touches everything.

The coming decade of uncertainty — in which the U.K. government continues to wrestle with the question of how and when and whether to leave the EU — could see the U.K. pulled apart. For supporters of a unified Ireland, Brexit is an opportunity to call for Northern Ireland to be brought back into the fold. Another push for Scottish independence by the pro-European Scottish National Party is likewise inevitable.

There’s also the not-inconsequential matter of what all of this bedlam is doing to the economy. There are still those who believe that simply leaving the EU without a deal would be a quick-fix solution to the crisis, just as there were once people who believed that God was an Englishman and that a lady called Britannia ruled the waves with a trident. The cold hard fact is that in the short term a no-deal Brexit — or indeed any Brexit — would lead to price rises of basic goods, create supply chain mayhem and sound the death knell for many small companies.

And the economic ramifications extend way beyond the short term. Prior to 2016, the U.K. had a hard-earned, well-deserved reputation for economic stability and pragmatism. Britain was viewed as a place where business could thrive. A sensible country, with a “can do” attitude, that nurtured trade and commerce. All of that is likely to go the way of the British-built Nissan Qashqai.

In Boris Johnson, the country has had a prime minister who responded to concerns over a no-deal Brexit by literally saying: “Fuck Business.” The attitude of many of his fellow Brexiteers, in their rush to “get Brexit done,” has been similarly cavalier. Whether we stay or leave, Britain’s reputation as a safe place to do business is well and truly sullied, and it’s unlikely it will ever truly recover.

* * *

It’s not all Grinch, Grinch, Grinch though. Not every outcome of war is bad.

World War I may have destroyed Northern Europe and killed millions of people, but it did at least lead to women getting the vote in Britain, speed up the development of airplanes and create some lovely poetry. Likewise, the English Civil War of the mid-17th century may have turned father against son, caused Christmas to be canceled for a decade and visited misery on Ireland — but at least a parliamentary democracy was forged out of the event, and we were also bequeathed some lovely Restoration comedy.

Inevitably, the Brexit turmoil will have some positive side effects. The U.K.’s London-centric parliamentary democracy, for example, has long needed a good kick up the constitution, and Brexit has certainly shaken things up. Out of the chaos, new parties will inevitably emerge and some of those may seek to tackle the problems of the 21st century, rather than trying to refight the battles of the past. The new political climate could also finally rid us of the first-past-the-post electoral system that has distorted our political landscape.

As Britain stumbles into the 2020s, many may even come to appreciate the jolt to their complacency that Brexit has delivered. Brexit voters might finally understand our place in Europe, come to terms with our reliance on our partners and realize that Brits are no longer citizens of a superpower that rules a quarter of the globe.

Indeed, as Brexit Christmas follows Brexit Christmas and as the nation tucks into chlorinated turkeys and a limited range of vegetables, reminiscing about all those cheap winter breaks they once enjoyed, many Britons might come to appreciate all they once had; much as the post-war 1920s generation mourned the lost world of Edwardian England.

But boy, what a way to learn a lesson!

UK NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS

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