UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington - Predictions and Picks

This weekend sees the final UFC pay-per-view of 2019, and it’s all set to be one of the biggest shows of the year, as UFC 245 will feature three title fights, as well as a handful of UFC legends up and down the undercard.

The last time we saw three title fights on a UFC card was some time ago – November 2017’s UFC 217 – and this card promises to be equally earth-shattering, with the Welterweight title, Featherweight title and Women’s Bantamweight title all on the line.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington.

#1 Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington

This Welterweight title clash has been a long time in the making; Covington – who is currently on a seven-fight winning streak – captured the Interim Welterweight title back in June 2018 with then-champion Tyron Woodley on the shelf, but various issues meant that a Woodley/Covington title fight never took place.

Instead, Usman – who is unbeaten in the UFC at 10-0 – ended up taking his shot at Woodley in March, and to the surprise of many, he dominated ‘The Chosen One’ over five rounds, dethroning him and taking his title in the process.

The idea of two fighters on such tremendous winning streaks would be intriguing by itself, but there’s so much more about this fight that makes it a great one; both men are amongst the best wrestlers in the UFC as a whole, let alone the 170lbs division, but more importantly, they despise each other.

I don’t want to get political in an MMA article of course, but the backstory of a fight between a Nigerian immigrant in Usman and the Donald Trump-endorsing, quasi-right wing Covington writes itself. Will it translate to dollars at the box office? The UFC hopes so.

In terms of the fight? It’s close to call, but personally, I’m favouring Usman. Both men fight in a similar fashion; their whole game is built around pressure. Both men have been excellent collegiate wrestlers – Usman was an NCAA Division II national champion at the University of Nebraska, while Covington was an All-American at the Division I level and was a two-time Pac-10 Conference champion.

However, neither Usman nor Covington is a pure wrestler in the mold of say, early Josh Koscheck or Brock Lesnar, though. Both men tend to use their striking and cardio to force their opponents to back up, which then opens them up for the takedown. And once they’ve got hold of their opponents, neither man tends to let up, forcing them to the ground to be fed a steady diet of punches and elbows.

In terms of striking, though, it’s ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ who appears to be the more advanced. Usman uses his long, rangy frame with his 76” reach to hit his opponents with heavy punches from the outside, and in recent fights – most notably against Woodley and Rafael Dos Anjos – he showed a developing jab and an ability to string combinations together, using the uppercut to tremendous effect in his title win.

Covington has displayed a willingness to strike – he even largely stayed on his feet during his impressive win over Robbie Lawler – but he’s also far wilder with his punches and doesn’t have the greatest defence in comparison to Usman. Demian Maia for instance landed some heavy shots on him before succumbing to his takedowns and pressure, as did Dos Anjos in their fight.

Against Usman, that wildness could well find him in trouble. ‘Chaos’ has never faced an opponent who has been able to stop his takedown, and that’s meant that he’s been able to throw his wild strikes with little return as his foes have been so concerned with his wrestling game.

Usman on the other hand has never been taken down in the UFC – even by Woodley – and appears to carry supernatural strength. Even for a wrestler as skilled as Covington, it’s hard to imagine the Nigerian being put on his back. And if Covington can’t use that pressure game and take him down, he’s left with a pretty crude striking arsenal.

Add in the fact that Usman is likely to be able to match the pace of ‘Chaos’ – he’s never gassed in the UFC to date – and I just can’t see Covington being able to have his usual success here. I don’t think he’s as polished a fighter as Usman and assuming ‘Chaos’ hasn’t totally gotten into his head, then an angry ‘Nigerian Nightmare’ is going to be hard to stop.

The Pick: Usman via fourth round submission

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