Liverpool vs Leicester: How the Premier League top two compare... and is there cause for Leicester optimism in title chase?
by Daniel Zeqiri
Leicester have pulled six points clear of Manchester City and have the best goal difference in the Premier League after eight consecutive wins.
Brendan Rodgers' team are currently the closest challenger to near-perfect leaders Liverpool, who are heavy favourites to secure a first league title since 1990.
If any team is to deny them it could be Leicester, and the two teams meet at the King Power Stadium on Boxing Day for what could prove a decisive game.
Liverpool's attack might be the most formidable and dynamic collective in European football, but Jamie Vardy has surged clear as the league's top scorer with 16 goals in as many starts.
Here we compare the top two and assess whether Leicester have a realistic chance of a second Premier League in four seasons.
The numbers
Unbeaten in 33 league games, Liverpool appear an unstoppable force and few would contest that the European champions are the best team in the country. It is somewhat surprising then, to find that Leicester and Liverpool are uncannily similar statistically based on some simple measures.
Manchester City remain far and away the most productive attacking force in the league, but have started to leak chances and goals at a higher rate than the last two seasons. Individual errors and porous defending have dogged Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal all season, so it is defensive rigour and solidity where Leicester and Liverpool have separated themselves.
No team has conceded fewer goals than Leicester's 10, who have also restricted opponents to just 45 shots on target after 16 games. You don't need to be Carol Vorderman to know that is less than three shots on target per game, meaning teams must have a red-hot finishing day to get the better of them. Liverpool too have conceded just 45 shots on target but have conceded four more goals. Using a more precise metric - Expected Goals against - hammers home just how evenly matched the two are. Leicester's xG against is 15.31 while Liverpool's in 15.19.
Leicester's attacking numbers were distinctly unimpressive in the season's early weeks but they have rapidly closed the gap in that department too. Proceed with caution, because their run of league wins has contained a 5-0 win against 10-man Newcastle and that freakish 9-0 rout at Southampton who were also a man down very early.
Nevertheless, finding a way to get James Maddison and Youri Tielemans in central positions with room for an extra forward seems to be paying dividends for Rodgers. Leicester's xG total for the season is now 29.07, just a shade behind Liverpool's 30.49, and they are now just one goal behind Liverpool's raw total. Liverpool have taken more shots as you would expect, but have been more efficient than spectacular with a succession of one-goal wins.
Squad depth
Liverpool have used 21 players in the Premier League this season while Leicester have used 20. Leicester's 2016 title win was based on a small core of players - Danny Simpson, Robert Huth, Wes Morgan, Christian Fuchs, Riyad Mahrez, Danny Drinkwater, N'Golo Kante, Marc Albrighton, Shinji Okazaki and Jamie Vardy - staying fit, but they have shown more flexibility this season.
Demarai Gray, Dennis Praet and Hamza Choudhury have started just nine league games between them but are three exciting players who can replicate the qualities offered by more regular starters. The rebirth of Kelechi Iheanacho since his stoppage-time winner against Everton could be like a new singing and ease the burden on Vardy. Players like Morgan and Fuchs are still around and are experienced defensive back-up.
That said, while squad size might be similar, Liverpool certainly have more concentrated quality. Jurgen Klopp has Fabinho, Jordan Henderson, James Milner, Georginio Wijnaldum, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Naby Keita covering three midfield positions with Adam Lallana and Xherdan Shaqiri also capable of playing as a No 8. Centre-back and striker are the two areas where Liverpool might be short, although cult hero Divock Origi has stepped up when required.
Fixture pile-up
Liverpool have played five more games than Leicester so far this season and will play an extra game in December thanks to their participation in the Fifa World Club Cup. Liverpool's league fixture at West Ham has been postponed and will be sandwiched into their schedule later in the season. Their progress in the Champions League depends on getting a result at Red Bull Salzburg but they are expected to do so. A shadow team will be fielded in the Carabao Cup at Aston Villa, less than 24 hours before the World Club Cup.
Leicester are not in European competition of course, but do have a winnable Carabao Cup quarter-final at Everton coming up this month. Win that, and Leicester will face a two-legged semi-final in January - possibly against Manchester United and Manchester City. Given the youthful team Liverpool are likely to pick at Villa, they may well be sat with their feet up.
Big game nous
Liverpool are dominant against their fellow 'Big Six' opponents - if we substitute Arsenal for Leicester in this formulation - with four wins and a draw from five games so far this season. Leicester though, have just one win from four against these teams and that came at home to Tottenham courtesy of Maddison's long-range strike.
Both teams have ticked off difficult away games at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford, but will go to the Etihad, the Emirates and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the second half of the season. It should be noted that Leicester's draw at Chelsea and disappointing loss at Manchester United came in the season's early weeks, while they were a minute away from taking a point from Anfield. Consecutive games against City and Liverpool this month will further test their title credentials.
Winning pedigree
Leicester have proven they can handle the pressure of winning games in the season's final stretch, not only in 2016 but when they won seven of their last nine to stay up the previous season. That 5,000/1 league-winning campaign was so singular and unique that not even the most optimistic Leicester fan could have countenanced a repeat, but they are more recent league champions than Liverpool. It would be wildly inaccurate to label Liverpool chokers however, after reaching consecutive Champions League finals and losing one of their last 55 league games.
The managers
Rodgers has done an exemplary job at Leicester and earned himself a new contract, and seems on a more even-keel than at Liverpool where has admitted he did not always cope in high-pressure situations. Now has the experience of lifting multiple trophies at Celtic, although all as the hunted rather than the hunter. It may have all ended in tears, but we should not forget that Liverpool won 12 of 14 league games under Rodgers in 2013/14.
Klopp is arguably the best coach in the world right now, so Liverpool will have no worries in that regard. Lifted his first Liverpool trophy in Madrid in May and also won back-to-back Bundesliga titles with Borussia Dortmund. Nobody can touch him at present, but football can be a cruel and fickle business.