Russia: CBR prepping to cut another 50bps – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the CBR to cut the Key Rate by another 50bps to 6.00% on Friday.

Key Quotes

“The consensus is less dovish and expects 25bps of easing, which is also quite a likely scenario. In this latter case, we would consider further easing in 2020 more likely than a hold as we currently forecast (premised on 50bps of easing this week).”

“FX: If the CBR eases by 50bps, as we expect, we anticipate a very limited rally in USDRUB only. Modest downside-to-no reaction if the CBR cuts 25bps. Expect somewhat stronger downside move in USDRUB in the very unlikely event of a hold.”