Why Karnataka bypolls will give battered BJP some confidence

The BJP was looking battered following the Shiv Sena's Maharashtra machinations and a threat to repeat the feat in neighbouring Goa. Karnataka bypolls victory has given the BJP a shot in the arm in the middle of Jharkhand Assembly election.

HIGHLIGHTS

• BJP wins 12 of 15 seats that went to polls in Karnataka Assembly byelection
• BJP now secures majority on its own in 225-member Karnataka Assembly
• Karnataka bypolls victory is a major boost for BJP after Maharashtra setback

With three more phases of Jharkhand Assembly election remaining to go, the BJP has received a boost in down south Karnataka, where its government was hanging by a thread tied to the by-elections held at 15 seats.

The BJP won 12 of the 15 seats where bypolls were held on December 5. The future of BS Yeddyurappa government of Karnataka depended on the outcome of the bypolls, which were necessitated by the disqualification of 17 MLAs of the Congress and the JDS earlier this year when the BJP returned to power in the middle of the allegations of horse-trading and defection-engineering.

With the election of 15 new members, the strength of Karnataka Assembly has gone up to 223. The normal strength of the house is 225. The truncated Karnataka Assembly had a strength of 208 making the BJP enjoying majority with 105 MLAs.

In the full-strength Karnataka Assembly, the ruling party requires support of 123 MLAs. Two seats still remain vacant. This means, the BJP requires support of 112 MLAs to keep Yeddyurappa secure. The BJP's own number has increased to 117 with the sweep in Karnataka bypolls.

This result is bound to give the BJP some confidence in Maharashtra, where it just lost power to ally-turned-rival Shiv Sena, Goa - where the Shiv Sena is said to be trying to unite anit-BJP leaders - and Jharkhand, where the BJP shed its long-standing allies in the ongoing election.

The BJP was looking battered after it failed to read unexpectedly stiff resistance from its oldest ally Shiv Sena which - the BJP feels rode on its back to emerge second-largest party in Maharashtra election - formed government in alliance with the NCP and the Congress. The BJP is the single-largest party and was outwitted not only by the Shiv Sena but also by NCP leader Ajit Pawar last month.

The Shiv Sena then claimed that Maharashtra experiment would be repeated in Goa, where the BJP is the single-largest party with 17 seats in the 40-member assembly. It is supported by the Goa Forward Party (3 MLAs), Maharashtravadi Gomantak Party (1 MLA) and three Independent MLAs. The BJP has spent much of its energy in keeping its alliance together since Shiv Sena's threat in Goa.

In Jharkhand, the BJP - smarting under the Shiv Sena shocker in Maharashtra - decided to go solo. This is the first time that the BJP is contesting an assembly election without its ally All Jharkhand Students Union since the state came into being in 2000.

The BJP cadre were reported to have been demotivated sensing that the once-again-emerging unity of the Opposition was gaining traction on the ground. The party had failed to secure majority in Haryana - where election was held along with Maharashtra - and was forced to show magnanimity in sharing power with fledgling Loknayak Janata Party of Dushyant Chautala.

The apparent reverses faced by the BJP in Haryana and Maharashtra -- with the Opposition claiming moral victory in one state and turning the saffron victory into an embarrassment in the other - have been neutralised for the BJP with clean sweep in Karnataka bypolls.

This was seen in the statements of Karnataka Congress leader DK Shivakumar, who "accepted defeat" and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who said, "Karnataka results show that in any state, if someone goes against the mandate of the people, they will be punished by the people."

This is a clear jibe at the Shiv Sena by PM Modi. But at the same time, it appears to be a message from PM Modi, in the wake of the Shiv Sena's Maharashtra machinations, to the allies of the BJP in states where elections are due next year. Bihar and Delhi will go to polls next year.