Lesley Riddoch: Brexit won’t get done if Boris wins, an SNP-backed Labour government is safer bet

‘Getting Brexit done’ will simply continue to overshadow everything else, says Lesley Riddoch.

If the Tories get a working majority on Thursday, as predicted, will Boris Johnson actually get Brexit done? Will politics return to something like normal?

Even at a time of fairytales, flying reindeer, Wise Men and Tinkerbell most adults realise the answer to both questions is a resounding no.

Passing Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement (largely cut-and-pasted from the discredited Theresa May) marks only the end of the beginning – the first stage of a bitter, contested divorce which moves on to the financial settlement and future trade negotiations. These must be concluded more speedily than any similar deal in political history and if the shambolic UK negotiating team fails – by accident or by design – the inhabitants of Britain will face the same “no deal” cliff edge next Christmas that was supposedly seen off in 2019.

This much we know.

Every news bulletin and parliamentary debate will continue to be dominated by Brexit in 2020. Uncertainty will blight investment, job security, life-plans, recruitment and the quality of public services. The unbelievable total of 43,000 nursing vacancies in the English NHS will not diminish but increase as EU workers finally depart for good. There will be no Golden Age for public services – why should there be when the new boss is actually the old boss?

At a deeper level, how can Brexit ever “get done” when leaving is bitterly opposed by millions of voters who will neither abandon their commitment to European identity, nor be accommodated in any way by the new Prime Minister.

Thus, Europe will only become more divisive and totemic as an issue and will continue to distract from the seismic issues of inequality, climate crisis, and democratic modernisation the entire British political system has chosen to ignore.

Most Tory voters and even Brexit supporters know this in their hearts.

They back Boris, not to get Brexit done but because he’s the one who lets them dream a while longer, indulges make-believe, allows disorientated people to take respite from the bleakness and empty affluence his party has created with the vain hope of making Britain great again.

No harsh realities, difficult choices or tough reappraisals from Santa Johnson. You only have to believe in his magical powers, his innate superiority and his bona fides. Or pretend.

It’s like an electoral version of the Stockholm syndrome. Some depressing yet powerful human dynamics are at work.

So, a Boris win is likely – but looking on the bright side, a Tory majority would change the thrust of political debate in early 2020.

Firstly, it would rob Boris Johnson of the chance to keep posing as the champion of The People against an evil, unresponsive, high-handed Remainer Parliament. If he becomes Prime Minister again, that “self-serving political elite” will largely be his own hand-picked “do or die” foot-soldiers. Any mistakes, delays, crassness or missed deadlines will be entirely and demonstrably his fault and no-one else’s. Alienated Tory big beasts like John Major will join with expelled grandees like Michael Heseltine to rub the new leader’s nose in it – and he must watch for signs of mutiny amongst his (currently) loyal band of lieutenants Gove, Hancock, Javid and Raab – all of whom wanted to be leader themselves. At the first sign of trouble they could try to challenge Johnson, supported by Jeremy Hunt and Theresa May on the backbenches, nursing their wrath to keep it piping hot.

Boris may be the darling of the Tory Party membership, but he will have very few friends in Parliament or (if Labour wins London), in the capital city. Is Johnson an accomplished political tightrope walker – we may soon find out.

Secondly, an overall majority would probably also rob Boris of his best recruiting sergeant – Jeremy Corbyn. Not even Teflon Tony could have withstood the sustained and concerted hatchet-job Corbyn has faced every waking day for the last five weeks. The Labour leader has made the media’s job easier than it needed to be, but he’s also overseen a much-needed policy alignment. If Labour’s popular programme of renationalisation and public ownership is wedded to a new, more articulate and assertive leader – Boris will face real, spirited political opposition every inch of the way in 2020.

Thirdly, a Boris working majority would also end the absurdity of Arlene Foster and the DUP representing the views of Remain voting Northern Ireland. Greens and other small parties won’t stand against some Alliance and SDLP candidates, so there’s a chance Ms Foster’s personal authority will be seriously clipped – and that this could precipitate the much-predicted break-up of Britain.

Astonishingly, it’s influential parts of the London media who’ve decided that’s on the cards.

Channel Four anchor Jon Snow is travelling around the Celtic nations, making a series of films about dissatisfaction in the devolved nations. Radio Four’s flagship World this Weekend is planning an hour-long debate on the future of the United Kingdom for next week. Doubtless, more is planned.

It’s ironic. The Conservatives have won elections in the teeth of fierce opposition from Scots for decades. But Brexit has finally thrown that crushing unfairness into sharp relief and a supportive media spotlight. So too have recent opinion polls which suggest a majority of Scots would support independence if Boris Johnson triggers withdrawal from the EU.

London’s sudden interest in Scotland’s constitutional bind is welcome, but dangerous too. Enthusiasm may soon wane if Scots don’t live up to our newfound billing as the Remain rebels who Won’t Stand For Brexit.

Unfairly, since no smaller member of this “family of nations” has yet found a way to exercise authority or be heard. But the British media doesn’t do fair, patient, marginal or incremental.

So, the pressure will not relent. Brexit won’t get done if Boris wins the vote. And an SNP-supported Corbyn government is still a much better bet. But if the worst happens, Nicola Sturgeon will have an opportunity to assert bold political leadership.

Will she take it?