The Wysh List: Stanley Cup contender tiers and long-shot dreams

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The St. Louis Blues' Stanley Cup victory last season has affected the NHL as if someone poured hallucinogens into its water supply. It has created delusions of grandeur, making any team that's seemingly out of it by the end of January feel as if, theoretically, it could be very much in it by mid-April.

On Jan. 31 last season, the Blues were 22-22-5, for 49 points. That's one more than the Sharks and one fewer than the Rangers currently have. So although neither of those teams scream "playoff bound," the Blues have lit the path for hope.

No hole is too deep from which to claw out! No cause is lost until the math says it is! Then, as they went deeper in the playoffs, the Blues adopted another hockey cliché: If you're in it, you can win it!

"Anything can happen," Canucks forward J.T. Miller told me this week.

He speaks from experience, having watched a team that qualified for the playoffs in the final hours of the regular season sweep his Lightning, one of the best regular-season teams in a century, out of the postseason in the first round.

"Something I've been preaching this year to this team is that we need to play well and just get in the playoffs. Just play our games," he said. "Don't stress too much, you know? Just try to get in and anything happens when you get there."

The Canucks are one of a handful of teams that appear playoff-bound, but their championship credentials are yet to be determined. So as the NHL passes through the All-Star break into the stretch run, we decided it was time for a contender tier heat check.


The cream of the crop

Boston Bruins
Colorado Avalanche
Pittsburgh Penguins
St. Louis Blues
Tampa Bay Lightning
Washington Capitals

The Bruins, Capitals and Blues have been in cruise control for most of the season. In the case of the Blues, that they've done it without Vladimir Tarasenko might be the most underappreciated story of the season.

The Penguins' defense (third in expected goals against at 5-on-5) elevates them into this tier, although their permanent residency depends on their health. The Lightning have figured themselves out. The Avalanche are the best 5-on-5 team in the league by leaps and bounds, with a goal difference per 60 of 1.06, which is the second-highest number in that category in a decade.

These are the best of the best, your top Cup contenders.

The imperfect suitors

Calgary Flames
Dallas Stars
Florida Panthers
New York Islanders
Toronto Maple Leafs

All of these teams (except Toronto) were in a playoff seed heading into Thursday night's games, and all have some flaw that keeps us from elevating them to the elite. The Flames have played .667 hockey under Geoff Ward, but are 28th in goals per 60 at even-strength (2.01), while the Stars are 29th (2.00). The Panthers are the only playoff team with sub-.900 goaltending (.898). The Islanders might not score enough to win in the playoffs. The Leafs might not defend well enough to win in the playoffs.

Despite the flaws, all have the stuff to contend.

The secret juggernauts

The Canucks have a number of the components necessary for a deep playoff run -- provided everyone stays healthy. Devin Manky/Icon Sportswire

Carolina Hurricanes
Vancouver Canucks

The Hurricanes are the best possession team in the NHL, and don't get enough attention for their defensive acumen: fourth in goals-against average (2.64) through 50 games. Their plus-27 is the best goal differential for any team not in a divisional seed. There's a much longer list of reasons why they could win the Cup vs. why they couldn't.

Vancouver, meanwhile, has a plus-18 goal differential built on strong goaltending (tied for ninth in save percentage) and an offense (3.27 goals per game) that scores just enough. The Canucks are young in some key areas, but they're also carried by one of the best high-end cores in the conference. If they stay healthy -- and fingers remained knotted on that -- they could make the playoffs and then make more than a little noise.

The bubbling contenders

Arizona Coyotes
Edmonton Oilers
Philadelphia Flyers

These are teams teetering on the bubble. The Coyotes need good health, a few more goals and someone to burn a sprig of sage in the locker room to cleanse it of the Taylor Hall playoff jinx. The Oilers ... well, they need a lot, but mostly need to spend as much time on the power play (where they convert 29.6 percent of opportunities) as possible. Philly just keeps chugging along, average in almost every way but finding ways to win.

The Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas Golden Knights

They earn their own category, because this season has been bizarre. Their underlying numbers are tremendous -- an expected goals-for percentage of 54.7, second in the league behind Tampa -- yet consistency has been as fleeting as a stack of chips at the craps table. The Gerard Gallant firing was odd. The goaltending has been subpar. Something feels off, and yet if they get in, would anyone be shocked to see them roll?

The new Blues?

The Blue Jackets have been on quite a tear as of late. Russell LaBounty-USA TODAY Sports

Chicago Blackhawks
Columbus Blue Jackets
Minnesota Wild
Montreal Canadiens
Nashville Predators
New York Rangers

The Blackhawks have the sixth best goaltending in the NHL and are much closer to the playoff bubble than anyone expected. But they're going to have to be better than 3.00 goals per game, and the same holds for Montreal at 3.02 goals per game. The Habs are basically in the same spot the Blues were at this time last season. They've been missing Brendan Gallagher and continue to miss Jonathan Drouin and Paul Byron. Their underlying numbers are outstanding, including being third in expected goals percentage (53.07). We're not saying they will make up a double-digit deficit in the East. But we're saying there's a slight chance they could.

We're putting the Blue Jackets here because we might be in the midst of their Blues moment. They were 11-14-4 on Dec. 7. They've gone 16-2-4 (!) since, with separate winning streaks of five and six games. Don't pretend that you haven't considered whether "Elvis Merzlikins" is Latvian for "Jordan Binnington" ...

As for the Predators, their path back to contention was always rather clear. New coach John Hynes had to get a bit more out of the top-end talent, pray to the hockey gods that the special teams improve and assume Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros could give him two solid months. If that happens, and they get in, there's a lot to like there.

Then there's the Wild. They have the best expected goals against at 5-on-5 in the NHL (1.99), and yet they're 27th in goals against average this season (3.28) thanks to ghastly goaltending (.894 save percentage). They have the consistency of watery oatmeal ... and yet still have a shot at snagging a playoff spot.

Finally, the Rangers get a mention for two reasons: Artemi Panarin and goaltending. The Rangers have three netminders capable of dominating. They have, in Panarin, a player who would be in the MVP discussion if they get within sniffing distance of the wild card. To put it in recent playoff-miracle terms: All they need is for Panarin to be Taylor Hall and have Lundqvist or either of the Russian kids become Keith Kinkaid for a few weeks.

Trending down

Buffalo Sabres
San Jose Sharks
Winnipeg Jets

The Sabres have been a colossal disappointment while the Rangers are the tantalizing, young team we'd figured the Sabres would be. Any hope of a Sharks rally was lost to injury. The Jets are a tough one to put here, because a good month of Connor Hellebuyck could mean they're a playoff team. But the more you squint, the more you see the Anaheim Ducks of last season, carried by elite goaltending until it couldn't carry them any further.

Not even the 2018-19 Blues could pull this off

Anaheim Ducks
Detroit Red Wings
Los Angeles Kings
New Jersey Devils
Ottawa Senators

Give them 100 Craig Berubes and 100 Jordan Binningtons and they're still in the lottery.


Jersey Fouls

From P.K. Subban fandom in the Garden State: