The Hill's Campaign Report: Four-way sprint to Iowa finish line

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Welcome to The Hill's Campaign Report, your weekly rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.

We're Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here's what we're watching this week on the campaign trail. 

LEADING THE DAY:

BREAKING: Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney ended his presidential bid ahead of Monday's Iowa Caucuses, telling CNN's New Day that he did not have sufficient support to hit the 15 percent viability threshold needed in the Hawkeye State. Delaney also said he did not want to risk peeling away support from other moderate candidates like former vice president Joe Biden, former mayor of South Bend, Ind., Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.). 

Read more: Delaney ends White House bid

We're three days away from the first round of voting in the 2020 Democratic nominating contest, and we're still looking for answers.

The Iowa caucuses will be held on Monday, and Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are running in a dead-heat for first place. But Buttigieg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) aren't far behind. There's also the possibility of a surprise finish by Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who just this week snuck into double digits in a Monmouth University poll. 

To be sure, Iowa isn't necessarily a must-win state for the eventual nominee, whomever it may be (although no Democratic nominee since Bill Clinton has won the nomination without taking the top prize in Iowa). But Monday's vote will give us a clearer indication of who has momentum in the race – and what Democratic voters are actually looking for in a candidate. Will Biden's claim that he's the candidate best equipped to beat President Trump in November be the message that wins over the party? Or will Sanders's premise that voters are more progressive than once thought prove true?

Iowa could matter more for some candidates than it will for others. Klobuchar, for example, has ramped up her efforts in the state in recent months in hopes of pulling off a better-than-expected finish on Monday. The same holds true for Buttigieg, who has polled well for months in Iowa and New Hampshire, both predominantly white states, but has lagged in more diverse states like Nevada and South Carolina, meaning that an under-par performance in the Hawkeye State could portend trouble for his campaign. 

There's also the question of how recent changes to caucus rules could affect the overall results. Unlike in past cycles, caucusgoers that join the "uncommitted" groups at the beginning of the night could get stuck there if those groups are considered viable (in most precincts, that means notching at least 15 percent support). And for the first time, the Iowa Democratic Party will report three numbers at the end of the night: which candidate had the most votes at the beginning of the caucus process, which candidate had the most votes at the end and the total number of delegates won by each candidate – a change that raises the possibility of multiple candidates declaring victory in the state. In years past, the party only reported how many delegates each candidate won.

All this adds up to an uncertain Caucus Night, but one that will say a lot about the state of the race. 

The Hill's Niall Stanage was on the ground in Iowa for President Trump's campaign rally on Thursday