Weekend Plays: Monday Morning QB can get the Withers distance

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Photo: Laurel Park Photo

On the Kentucky Derby trail, it is important for bettors to not get caught up in playing back horses who won for them before,unless it makes sense from an unbiased standpoint. In this case, Shotski makes his return on Saturday in the Grade 3, $250,000 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. But the Remsen Stakes (G2) winner is listed at 2-1 on the morning line, which is a bit too low for my liking.

The race is competitive, and Monday Morning QB is one improving colt with the right long-distance pedigree to give Shotski a serious challenge.

He leads off five top Saturday picks across races at Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Santa Anita.

Aqueduct Race 8: Withers Stakes (G3)

Monday Morning QB won the seven-furlong Heft Stakes at Laurel Park by ¾ of a length over New Commission, earning a high 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. For comparison, Shotski earned a 113 in his Remsen victory in December.

With that said, there are some new obstacles for Monday Morning QB in the Withers aside from his opponents. For one, he will need to stretch out from seven to nine furlongs. Stepping up to a graded stakes race is not easy, either, no matter what the speed figures say.

To counteract the first point, though, Monday Morning OB owns a nice pedigree for stretching out, both in his immediate family and generations back. Sire Imagining ran as a marathon turf router and won the 2014 Manhattan Stakes (G1) as his career highlight, while the first dam How My Heart Works is a daughter of Formalities Aside, a half-sister to 2009 Dubai World Cup winner Well Armed.

One negative about Monday Morning QB is that he failed to switch leads in the Heft. But he switched leads two races ago without problem. These horses are young and still learning.

With Shotski the likely favorite, taking a shot on an up-and-comer such as Monday Morning QB is worth it. Bet him at 3-1 or higher.